Spamdex - Spam Archive

Report spam

Send in your spam and get the offenders listed

Create a rule in outlook or simply forward the spam you receive to

Also in

The Odds Against Higher Interest Rates

Having trouble viewing this email? View it online.
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Money and Markets
The Odds Against Higher Interest Rates
by Mike Burnick

Dear ,

This week's Federal Reserve policy meeting was yet another nonevent as expected. In fact, recent economic data has taken a definite turn for the worse including:

A surprisingly weak September jobs report, including downward revisions to job growth in previous months ...

Dismal manufacturing data that has spread to every region of the U.S. ...

And this week's shockingly bad report on new home sales, which plunged 15% month-over-month to the lowest level in almost a year.

The downbeat economic data is pushing the likelihood of a Fed interest rate increase further and further into the future. In fact, if you take a closer look at the market's own assessment about the likely path for the Fed funds rate, you'll see that nobody expects the Fed to raise rates anytime soon.

Just take a look at the chart below and you'll see what I mean.

Click image for larger view

The probability of the Fed hiking rates in October plunged from a 45% chance just four months ago, to just a 4% chance as the Fed met this week!

And the odds of a rate increase by March 2016 are barely more than 50/50 at this point, down from a nearly 90% chance just four months ago.

That's because, as I mentioned at the outset, recent economic data has taken a decisive turn for the worse, which tells me the recent stock market rally is simply not sustainable.

While the Fed is supposed to base its policy decisions on a balanced assessment of the economic data, especially jobs and inflation, you can bet that Yellen and company are nervously watching corporate sales and profit results too.

Recently in Money and Markets (see: Can Stocks Survive the Earnings Recession of 2015?) I wrote about dismal prospects for third-quarter earnings. In fact, nearly half of S&P 500 companies have reported results so far and profits are on track to decline about 3% year–over-year.

Triple-Digit Profits!

Oil and energy shares have been trading at their lowest valuations in years. You can buy all the shares you want for 50% to 90% off the recent price. And here's the secret that savvy insiders know and that can help make you very rich, very quickly: In the past, every time oil prices have fallen this low, this fast ... without exception ... they have rebounded with a speed and force that leaves investors stunned. Don't delay, this opportunity won't last long! Click here for more information!

Internal Sponsorship

As usual, most companies are beating lowered expectations, but not by enough to make year-over-year earnings growth positive:

While 77% of companies have reported profits above estimates, only 43% have reported top-line sales above expectations. The biggest culprit being cited by many companies to explain away the sales shortfall is the strong dollar, which is a major drag on overseas sales and profits.

And that's another good reason why the Fed is so reluctant to begin raising interest rates. Central banks globally have cut interest rates more than 500 times since 2008.

With the entire world easing monetary policy now, a Fed rate hike would send the dollar on another parabolic move higher, crushing corporate sales and profits even more.

The U.S. economy is in a precarious situation right now. Deflationary forces have reduced global growth, cutting into U.S. industrial exports, which in turn is hurting profits.

Click image for larger view

U.S. industry is contracting at an alarming rate, as you can see in the graph above, where ALL five of the Fed's regional manufacturing surveys for September AND October came in below zero — meaning widespread contraction in factory orders and current production.

U.S. manufacturing hasn't been this anemic since the last recession in 2009. In fact, it's even worse now than during the global growth scare in 2011. And in 2011, the S&P 500 declined nearly 20% in just a few months!

If corporate profits end up falling again this quarter, as they are now on track to, it will be the second consecutive quarter of slumping profits for corporate America. In other words: a "profit recession."

And that hasn't happened since 2009, when the Great Recession was just ending.

The fact is the Fed has never before hiked interest rates during a profit recession, which is another reason why the chances of a Fed rate hike should keep falling for the foreseeable future.

Good investing,

Mike Burnick

P.S. Mike Larson has prepared an incredibly important report titled, "Profiting from the Return of the Bear Market."

In this urgent briefing, Mike will explain why he believes we've fallen in to a bear market ... and why it is here to stay.

But hurry! This absolutely free briefing only takes place on one day — next Monday, November 2nd at 2 PM Eastern Time.

Click here to register now.

The investment strategy and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of any other editor at Weiss Research or the company as a whole.

Have comments? Tell Us!

Facebook Twitter Linkedin YouTube Pinterest

About Money and Markets
For more information and archived issues, visit
Money and Markets is a free daily investment newsletter published by Weiss Research, Inc. This publication does not provide individual, customized investment or trading advice. All information is based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates, but hypothetical as we do not track actual prices of customer purchases and sales. We cannot guarantee the accuracy of third party advertisements or sponsors, and these ads do not necessarily express the viewpoints of Money and Markets or its editors. For more information, see our Terms and Conditions. View our Privacy Policy. Would you like to unsubscribe from our mailing list? To make sure you don't miss our urgent updates, just follow these simple steps to add Weiss Research to your address book.

Attention editors and publishers! Money and Markets teaser content may be republished with a link to the full story on Such republication must include attribution with a link to the MoneyandMarkets home page as follows: "Source:"

Money and Markets: A Division of Weiss Research, Inc. |

4400 Northcorp Parkway | Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33410 | 1-800-393-0189


All titles, content, publisher names, trademarks, artwork, and associated imagery are trademarks and/or copyright material of their respective owners. All rights reserved. The Spam Archive website contains material for general information purposes only. It has been written for the purpose of providing information and historical reference containing in the main instances of business or commercial spam.

Many of the messages in Spamdex's archive contain forged headers in one form or another. The fact that an email claims to have come from one email address or another does not mean it actually originated at that address! Please use spamdex responsibly.

Yes YOU! Get INVOLVED - Send in your spam and report offenders

Create a rule in outlook or simply forward the junk email you receive to | See contributors

Google + Spam 2010- 2017 Spamdex - The Spam Archive for the internet. unsolicited electric messages (spam) archived for posterity. Link to us and help promote Spamdex as a means of forcing Spammers to re-think the amount of spam they send us.

The Spam Archive - Chronicling spam emails into readable web records index for all time

Please contact us with any comments or questions at Spam Archive is a non-profit library of thousands of spam email messages sent to a single email address. A number of far-sighted people have been saving all their spam and have put it online. This is a valuable resource for anyone writing Bayesian filters. The Spam Archive is building a digital library of Internet spam. Your use of the Archive is subject to the Archive's Terms of Use. All emails viewed are copyright of the respected companies or corporations. Thanks to Benedict Sykes for assisting with tech problems and Google Indexing, ta Ben.

Our inspiration is the "Internet Archive" USA. "Libraries exist to preserve society's cultural artefacts and to provide access to them. If libraries are to continue to foster education and scholarship in this era of digital technology, it's essential for them to extend those functions into the digital world." This is our library of unsolicited emails from around the world. See Spamdex is in no way associated though. Supporters and members of Helping rid the internet of spam, one email at a time. Working with Inernet Aware to improve user knowlegde on keeping safe online. Many thanks to all our supporters including Vanilla Circus for providing SEO advice and other content syndication help | Link to us | Terms | Privacy | Cookies | Complaints | Copyright | Spam emails / ICO | Spam images | Sitemap | All hosting and cloud migration by Cloudworks.

Important: Users take note, this is Spamdex - The Spam Archive for the internet. Some of the pages indexed could contain offensive language or contain fraudulent offers. If an offer looks too good to be true it probably is! Please tread, carefully, all of the links should be fine. Clicking I agree means you agree to our terms and conditions. We cannot be held responsible etc etc.

The Spam Archive - Chronicling spam emails into readable web records

The Glass House | London | SW19 8AE |
Spamdex is a digital archive of unsolicited electronic mail 4.9 out of 5 based on reviews
Spamdex - The Spam Archive Located in London, SW19 8AE. Phone: 08000 0514541.