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Europe's refugee crisis: The second wave begins

Monday, November 2, 2015
Money and Markets
YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET

Dear ,

Larry Edelson

Anyone who told you that Europe’s refugee crisis would be limited to “only” one million immigrants was pulling your leg.

As I pointed out many times in this space, the first wave was primarily young men who left large families behind — families that are also eager to leave the Middle East.

Now those families are beginning to follow — and this second wave of refugees could make the first one pale by comparison.

This morning, for example, Bloomberg tells the story of Mariam who just completed a trek from Turkey with her three children to reunite with her husband in Berlin.

Suddenly, ONE refugee from the first wave is now FOUR refugees. And still, the family has more members eager to follow.

This human tidal wave — a wave that will ultimately include many millions of destitute refugees — poses so many problems for the EU, one hardly knows where to begin.

The first problem alone could ultimately be the coup de grâce for the Union:

Most of the 28 states that make up the European Union are so deep in debt that they have to borrow money just to pay interest on what they owe. Now, thanks to this refugee crisis, those debts are exploding in size.

The problem: These socialized states guarantee cradle-to-grave care for residents. They are already caring for an estimated one million refugees. And in the weeks ahead, they will have no choice but to extend those benefits to millions more.

That alone could be the straw that breaks the Union’s back (need I remind you that it all began in October, just as my cycles work predicted?).

But the fiscal catastrophe taking place in Europe is only the tip of the proverbial iceberg.

When Angela Merkel laid out the welcome mat for these refugees, she told the German people that the new immigrants would be good for Germany. They would take low-paying jobs Germans don’t want to do.

But many Syrians now being cared for in refugee centers openly say they have no interest in assimilating into European culture. They don’t want to learn the language. They don’t want jobs. They have no interest in paying taxes. They don’t want to integrate in any way.

Bloomberg recently told the story of Ahmed, a 23-year-old Syrian who has been in Germany for some time now:

“His parents paid smugglers to get him to Germany more than two years ago, and he still hasn’t found a job. He doesn’t want to go to language classes, and supplements his 400-euro ($443) monthly stipend from the government by working off the books at Arab-run businesses.”

To make matters worse, some refugees are already vowing — quite openly, in fact — to make Islam and Sharia law dominant in Europe, just as it is in the Middle East.

Unsurprisingly, none of this is settling well with the local citizenry, who resent having to pay excessive taxes to care for people who they see as a crushing burden on their already-floundering economies ...

... And worse, who are committed to changing their way of life.

In the weeks ahead, look for this situation to trigger rising anger among the electorate, the death of trust in the political establishment, widespread protests, the rise of extreme new nationalist movements, the overthrow of ruling political parties, massive debt defaults across Europe and, ultimately, the downfall of the Union.

This is precisely what I told you would begin happening in earnest as this great economic supercycle formed in October.

And this is also why I have been urging you to own investments that rise when the euro plunges ... that soar when European stocks crater ... and that spin off huge profits as trillions of euros in flight capital move into U.S. dollars and investments.

Do that, and you are likely to grow much richer in the weeks and months ahead.

Yours for supercycle survival and profits,


Larry Edelson

Senior Analyst, Weiss Research
Editor, Supercycle Trader

P.S. Although enrollment in my Supercycle Trader has now closed, I will continue these daily updates to help keep you abreast as this crisis continues to unfold.


The investment strategy and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of any other editor at Weiss Research or the company as a whole.

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