Spamdex - Spam Archive

Report spam

Send in your spam and get the offenders listed

Create a rule in outlook or simply forward the spam you receive to

Also in

The Global Guru: How to Beat Goldman Sachs at the Prediction Game

If you are on a mobile device or cannot view the images in this message view this email in your web browser.
To ensure future delivery please add to your address book or contacts.

Facebook Facebook
How to Beat Goldman Sachs at the Prediction Game

Triple Digit Profits from the Energy Rebound

Oil and energy stocks have been trading at their lowest valuations in years. Every time oil prices have fallen this low, this fast -- without exception -- they have rebounded with a speed and force that leaves most investors stunned. But investors who had the foresight to gobble up select oil and energy stocks at rock bottom prices made vast fortunes virtually overnight.

Now it’s your chance to do the same. New free report reveals 12 oil and energy stocks we’re buying now. Click here for immediate access.

Click Here Now!

“It’s tough to make predictions… especially about the future”

The late Yogi Berra’s quip about predictions reminds us that we humans are a funny lot.

In ancient times, the ancient Babylonians predicted the future using animal entrails. Today, millions of people still turn to astrology to get a glimpse of what’s to come. And we do the same when reading the financial media.

Yet, for all of our relentless commitment to divining the market’s future by reading this morning’s Wall Street Journal, it’s hard to avoid feeling that financial predictions aren’t any more reliable than those we find in the astrology columns.

Goldman Sachs’ Call on Oil

Just consider the case of Goldman Sachs’ calls on the oil price over the past 12 months or so. In late 2014, Wall Street’s premier investment bank asserted that “downside risks” in the oil price were gaining momentum and it forecast a decline in the price of oil to $90 a barrel in the first quarter of 2015.

Three weeks into 2015, and oil was trading below $50, confounding Goldman and nearly every other analyst on Wall Street. Fast forward to December 2015, and Goldman is standing by its latest prediction of a $20 per barrel bottom.

To give Goldman its due, it was actually more bearish than its peers, lowering its forecast before other investment banks did. But Goldman has revised its predictions so many times that at this point the only thing certain is that Goldman’s predictions will change -- rendering them essentially useless.

Here’s what’s surprising. Although Goldman’s analysis moves the markets, no one ever calls Goldman Sachs on its bungled predictions.

And it is highly unlikely that any Goldman Sachs oil analyst has ever been fired for making predictions about the oil price that have been wildly off the mark.

Contrast that with the fate of any surgeon or airline pilot -- all of whom would have been sued or put out of a job for showing similar levels of incompetence.

Cuba’s “Furious Decade” Starts Now
Right now, there’s a game-changing global development in the works that could make you very rich. Six months of research from a world-renowned economist has uncovered four hidden drivers that will likely spell the end of the U.S. trade embargo against Cuba. What’s more, this brand new report details five specific investments you can make to play this situation for massive profits.

But the best part is that all of these opportunities are on track to unfold as early as next year ... and now is your time to get in before they really take off. Click her now for access to this list of plays you can make for a chance at returns of at least 6,588%!

Click Here Now!

The Achilles Heel of Wall Street’s Complex Models

Most of us know deep down that astrological predictions are bunk. And we also realize that what Sam Goldwyn said about Hollywood also applies to Wall Street: “Nobody knows anything.”

Yet, we still cling to the irrational hope that a sleep-deprived 26-year-old Goldman Sachs analyst, armed with her elaborate spreadsheet models, can tell us something about the future of oil prices.

We are still wowed by a combination of the Goldman imprimatur and the apparent complexity of the firm’s financial modeling and its access to information.

One of the myths of Wall Street high finance is that the more variables a financial model accounts for, the more accurate its predictions.

Truth be told, any financial analyst worth his salt can construct a model that generates accurate predictions based on past data. But test the model on a different set of data and the predictive ability of the most elaborate model simply evaporates. Complex models are rarely robust.

Goldman Sachs’ model to predict the oil price is no different. That’s why the “out of sample” data make Goldman Sachs’ oil price predictions essentially worthless.

‘Fast and Frugal’ Decision Making Prevails

As psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has argued, “fast and frugal decision making” trumps complicated predictive modeling almost every time.

Goldman’s elaborate models for predicting the future are likely to be more wrong, more often, simply because they are so complicated.

The more complicated the model, the larger the likely error.

Gigerenzer cites an example from baseball. An outfielder doesn’t do calculus in his head when he estimates where to run to catch a fly ball. Yet the outfielder’s “fast and frugal decision making,” focusing on the one thing that really matters -- that is, keeping the angle of the ball in relation to his line of sight constant -- beats complicated models of optimization every time.

That’s why simple Wall Street aphorisms such as “cut your losses and let your profits run” work better than overly complex statistical models based on normal distribution curves.

You’ll Never Guess Who’s About to Crash the DOW
Don’t believe all of the rhetoric you’re hearing about President Obama’s “clueless” leadership… he knows exactly what he’s doing. His hidden agenda is slowly but surely coming to fruition behind the backs of the American people.

The worst part: the success of this “master plan” relies on a massive stock market crash! Click here now for the urgent expose that could save your portfolio from the inevitable.

Click Here Now!

In the outfield, you’d expect the Goldman Sachs analyst would try to do the calculus and end up dropping the ball.

Of course, in “real life” they really wouldn’t.

In fact, even Nobel Prize-winning economists don’t invest according to their own models.

Gigerenzer recounts how Harry Markowitz, the economist who shared the Nobel Prize in economics in 1990 for developing the core insights of Modern Portfolio Theory, never used his own theory when investing his retirement funds.

Instead, he used the “fast and frugal” heuristic (“rule of thumb”) to guide his investment decisions.

Ironically, he actually made more money than he would have if he had stuck to his own Nobel Prize-winning theory.

Manage Your Risks Instead

With global financial markets off to their worst start of the year in history, clients have inundated me with questions about my views on the direction of global stock markets.

My advice?

Heed Vanguard founder Jack Bogle’s advice: “Don’t do something, just stand there!”

Dozens of studies have shown that trying to time the market is a fool’s game. Miss out on just the 10 best days in the market, and your long-term returns in the S&P will halve. And those 10 days happen to come right after the worst 10 days, making trying to time the market that much more difficult.

That picture changes only if you are a short-term trader.

In that case, your focus should be on managing your risks. Prediction -- whether complex or “fast and frugal” -- matters little in investing, unless you have a plan to manage your downside risks.

A “fast and frugal” plan to cut your losses, say, at 20% in all your investments in 2008 would have trumped the hundreds of gallons of virtual ink spilled on analyzing the causes and consequences of the global market meltdown.

Chances are, that rule of thumb won’t be perfect.

But as the economist John Maynard Keynes observed: “It is better to be approximately right than exactly wrong.”

And the one thing that you can say with certainty about Wall Street’s complex models is: that they will be “exactly wrong.”

Join me at The MoneyShow in Orlando, March 2-5!

Receive free admission to the MoneyShow in Orlando, Florida, as a guest of Eagle Financial Publications and me. The show’s new venue is at Disney’s Contemporary Resort near the company’s famous theme parks. I especially encourage you to attend my presentations, as well as those of my colleagues Bryan Perry and Dr. Mark Skousen, among more than 150 other speakers who will address a range of income and growth investments. Register today.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my Global Guru column from last week about why there will never be another investor as good as Buffett or Soros. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

Nicholas Vardy
Nicholas A. Vardy
Editor, The Global Guru

Subscribe to my Newsletter and Trading Services.
Follow me on Twitter.
Check out my Blog.
To ensure future delivery of Eagle Financial Publication's emails please add the domain to your address book or contact list.

This email was sent to because you are subscribed to the Nicholas Vardy's The Global Guru List. To unsubscribe or update your delivery preferences, please click here.

If you have questions, please send them to Customer Service.

Eagle Financial Publications - Eagle Products, LLC. - a Caron Broadcasting Company
300 New Jersey Ave. NW, Suite 500 | Washington, D.C. 20001

© 2015 Eagle Financial Publications. All rights reserved.


All titles, content, publisher names, trademarks, artwork, and associated imagery are trademarks and/or copyright material of their respective owners. All rights reserved. The Spam Archive website contains material for general information purposes only. It has been written for the purpose of providing information and historical reference containing in the main instances of business or commercial spam.

Many of the messages in Spamdex's archive contain forged headers in one form or another. The fact that an email claims to have come from one email address or another does not mean it actually originated at that address! Please use spamdex responsibly.

Yes YOU! Get INVOLVED - Send in your spam and report offenders

Create a rule in outlook or simply forward the junk email you receive to | See contributors

Google + Spam 2010- 2017 Spamdex - The Spam Archive for the internet. unsolicited electric messages (spam) archived for posterity. Link to us and help promote Spamdex as a means of forcing Spammers to re-think the amount of spam they send us.

The Spam Archive - Chronicling spam emails into readable web records index for all time

Please contact us with any comments or questions at Spam Archive is a non-profit library of thousands of spam email messages sent to a single email address. A number of far-sighted people have been saving all their spam and have put it online. This is a valuable resource for anyone writing Bayesian filters. The Spam Archive is building a digital library of Internet spam. Your use of the Archive is subject to the Archive's Terms of Use. All emails viewed are copyright of the respected companies or corporations. Thanks to Benedict Sykes for assisting with tech problems and Google Indexing, ta Ben.

Our inspiration is the "Internet Archive" USA. "Libraries exist to preserve society's cultural artefacts and to provide access to them. If libraries are to continue to foster education and scholarship in this era of digital technology, it's essential for them to extend those functions into the digital world." This is our library of unsolicited emails from around the world. See Spamdex is in no way associated though. Supporters and members of Helping rid the internet of spam, one email at a time. Working with Inernet Aware to improve user knowlegde on keeping safe online. Many thanks to all our supporters including Vanilla Circus for providing SEO advice and other content syndication help | Link to us | Terms | Privacy | Cookies | Complaints | Copyright | Spam emails / ICO | Spam images | Sitemap | All hosting and cloud migration by Cloudworks.

Important: Users take note, this is Spamdex - The Spam Archive for the internet. Some of the pages indexed could contain offensive language or contain fraudulent offers. If an offer looks too good to be true it probably is! Please tread, carefully, all of the links should be fine. Clicking I agree means you agree to our terms and conditions. We cannot be held responsible etc etc.

The Spam Archive - Chronicling spam emails into readable web records

The Glass House | London | SW19 8AE |
Spamdex is a digital archive of unsolicited electronic mail 4.9 out of 5 based on reviews
Spamdex - The Spam Archive Located in London, SW19 8AE. Phone: 08000 0514541.