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Weekly ETF Report: Dueling Fed Officials and a Market Flip-Flop

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 Fabian's Weekly ETF Report
ETF Trader's Edge | ETFU.com  |  Weekly ETF Report  |  Successful ETF Investing 08/26/2016
In This Issue:
  • Dueling Fed Officials and a Market Flip-Flop
  • ETF Talk: Big International Fund Offers 6% Yield
  • Outsmarting the Billionaire Bear Club
  • That’s How Winning is Done
By: Doug Fabian | Editor, Successful ETF Investing | President, Fabian Wealth Strategies
Dueling Fed Officials and a Market Flip-Flop


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To say that the equity markets have been Fed-driven during the past seven years would be an exercise in stating the obvious. Yet on days like today, we get that message drummed home to us with a very loud beat.

As I woke up and scanned the financial media this morning, all I saw was speculation on what Fed Chair Yellen’s Jackson Hole conference talk would mean for the markets.

The press did have a transcript of Yellen’s prepared remarks. When those remarks were released at 10 a.m. EDT, stocks immediately moved higher by about 100 Dow points.

The key comment in the Yellen statement was that the economy was strong enough to justify a rate hike. The way she put was as follows:

“Indeed, in light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.”

The Yellen comments were widely regarded as a benign signal, and a repeat of what the Fed chair has said before on rates. The result was a sort of reading on the comments by traders that there would be no rate hike until sometime in 2017.

Yet nearly as soon as Ms. Yellen made her remarks public, the No. 2 man at the central bank, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, came out and said that the strength in the economy could justify a rate hike in September.

dia0826

Talk of a rate hike just about four weeks from now spooked markets, and that caused selling that sent the Dow falling from +100 points to -80 points. The Dow has since stabilized, but the flip-flop in the Industrials is notable for one big reason.

That reason is because the fuel for this current, post-Brexit rally has been the notion that interest rates around the world will remain ultra-low for as far as the eye can see. That idea has kept bond yields down, and equity prices up.

If, however, the market starts to get a growing sense that the Fed is going to hike this year, then that can and likely will pressure markets. In fact, it could even bring about a significant correction off the near-all-time highs.

So, how will you know this market is in correction mode? How will you know when it’s time to take shelter, sell equities and move to the safety of cash?

The answers to those profoundly important questions can be found in my Successful ETF Investing advisory service.

If you want to make sure you’re in stocks when the going is good, and out of stocks when things get dicey, then you owe it to yourself to check out Successful ETF Investing today.


Why Isn’t the Media Reporting on this Financial Ticking Time-Bomb?

There is an unprecedented “Trigger Event” set to occur in 2016 that could completely change our financial system as we know it… yet it’s the biggest UNREPORTED story in the mainstream media. Typically, during an election year, this sort of news is swept under the rug. But this time, the story will just be too big to ignore.

So if you’re concerned about your wealth, your family and your ability to receive Social Security and other benefits you’ve earned, then you’ll want to see the research I’ve compiled. Click here now to see my newest research.

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ETF Talk: Big International Fund Offers 6% Yield

Our series on international income funds brings us to iShares International Select Dividend (IDV). With more than $3 billion in total assets, this exchange-traded fund (ETF) is far more massive than any of the other overseas funds that we have covered in our recent series.

The fund has a current yield of almost 6%, making it one of the highest-yielding international equity funds. IDV’s investment objective is to track the investment results of the Dow Jones EPAC Select Dividend Index, which is composed of high-dividend-paying equities in non-U.S. developed markets.

IDV is up 4.75% year to date, which may seem a bit low when compared with the S&P 500’s 6.39%, but the fund has rebounded from a loss early this year and has since shown an upward movement that can be observed in the graph below. That return also does not include dividends. In just the last 50 days, the fund has risen by 3.16%, a relatively high increase for a short period of time. The fund has an expense ratio of 0.5%.

idv0826

View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of IDV at ETFU.com.

With its large total assets, IDV is able to actively invest in many locations of the globe, lowering its overall risk and allowing it to capitalize on opportunities in distant parts of the world. A quarter of its assets is invested in the Australasia region, 7.2% in developed Asian regions, 8.9% in Canada and the rest in various European countries.

Its top five holdings are AstraZeneca PLC (AZNCF), 4%; Royal Dutch Shell PLC Class A (RYDAF), 3.42%; Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBAUF), 3.31%; British American Tobacco PLC (BTAFF), 3.15%; and Macquarie Group Ltd (MCQEF), 2.80%.

As international dividend income funds go, it doesn’t get much bigger than IDV. If you seek a fund with investments in high-quality, high-dividend companies around the world, consider looking into iShares International Select Dividend (IDV) for a potential addition to your portfolio.

As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an email. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.


The Greatest Wealth-Compounding Machine of Our Time

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Outsmarting the Billionaire Bear Club

There are a whole lot of billionaires bearish on the equity markets right now.

That bearishness is understandably born out of a sense of unease about this market, a market that’s feeling way too “toppy” and way too overbought.

So, who are these bearish billionaires? Well, the list reads like a who’s who of American finance geniuses.

Here’s a sample of the biggest names who have come out with warnings that this market is headed for trouble, as laid out by the smart folks at Zero Hedge.
  • Stan Druckenmiller (May 4 at the Ira Sohn Conference): “Get out of the stock market.”
  • George Soros (June 9, as reported in the Wall Street Journal): “The billionaire hedge fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.”
  • Carl Icahn (June 9, on CNBC): “I don’t think you can have (near) zero interest rates for much longer without having these bubbles explode on you” while also saying it’s difficult to assess when exactly that might occur.
  • Jeff Gundlach (last Friday, in an interview with Reuters): “Sell everything. Nothing here looks good.”
  • Bill Gross (in his monthly investment letter, released last week): “I don’t like bonds. I don’t like most stocks. I don’t like private equity.”
Yes, I’ve heard the old adage that you should never argue about money with anyone richer than you. But the fact is that despite these high-profile bearish calls, they have all been wrong… at least so far.

If fact, being long in this market during its post-Brexit spike has been great for most investors, including subscribers to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter.

One reason we’ve done well of late is because we are letting the trend-following rules of what we call the Fabian Plan dictate what actions we take with our money.

spx_0819

Right now, the plan rules are in “buy” mode, meaning we will continue to hold stocks as they make new highs. If and/or when stocks pull back below key trend support at the 200-day moving average, that will be the time when the market tells us that it’s time to take some risk off of the table.

This trend-following approach is your best way to “outsmart” the billionaire bears, and the beauty of the approach is that it relies purely on objective price analysis. That means you don’t have to second guess the market… you just have to respect its decisions.

Right now, those decisions are sending stocks higher in spite of the warnings from Wall Street’s elite. And until such time as a change needs to be made, we will keep betting on the wisdom of the crowds and keep profiting from the push to all-time highs.

If you want to find out how to put a proven, trend-following plan in place that puts your money to work when things are good, and gets your money on to the safety of the sidelines when things are rocky, then I invite you to check out Successful ETF Investing today.

That’s How Winning is Done

“Let me tell you something you already know. The world ain’t all sunshine and rainbows. It is a very mean and nasty place and it will beat you to your knees and keep you there permanently if you let it. You, me, or nobody is gonna hit as hard as life. But it ain’t how hard you hit; it’s about how hard you can get hit, and keep moving forward. How much you can take, and keep moving forward. That’s how winning is done.”

-- Rocky Balboa

One of the most inspirational characters in all of film history, “Rocky” is the epitome of toughness and perseverance. In the above quote, Sylvester Stallone’s hero tells his son what the real key to winning is… which is to keep on going no matter what the obstacles, and regardless of the setbacks. Words to live by, indeed.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my column from last week about how the latest jobs reports also caused the market to hit new highs. I also invite you to comment about my column in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

All the best,
Doug Fabian
Doug Fabian
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