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Weekly ETF Report: My Post-Election Investing Direction

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 Fabian's Weekly ETF Report
ETF Trader's Edge | ETFU.com  |  Weekly ETF Report  |  Successful ETF Investing 11/04/2016
In This Issue:
  • My Post-Election Investing Direction
  • ETF Talk: Escaping Election Anxiety with an Emerging Markets Fund
  • Election Wisdom
By: Doug Fabian | Editor, Successful ETF Investing | President, Fabian Wealth Strategies
My Post-Election Investing Direction
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The vote is nearly here, and in four days we’ll know who has become the next president of the United States.  I don’t know about you, but I am glad the drama is nearly over.

When the outcome is known next week (barring any 2000-like contested election situation) it will be time to get back to making money the old-fashioned way, and that is by identifying the best sectors likely to deliver strong upside in the months to come.

The way I see it, there are three key trends on tap for markets as we near the end of 2016 and embark on the new year. Here is a rundown of the “Big 3” likely to shape our investment directions going forward.

1) The Math for Bonds is Bad

Bonds have had a great run, there’s no doubt about it. Yet the math for bonds going forward does not look favorable for investors. That’s because we are entering a rising interest rate environment, one that will pressure bond prices going forward.

AGS

What this means is that bonds will no longer offer the kind of price appreciation they have in the past. All investors are likely to see from bonds is the coupon, which is a yield of about 2-3% depending on the bond.

Given that inflation is running at about 2%, the math here just will not get the job done for most investors.

2) Investors Are Under-Allocated to International Stocks

The domestic markets have led the way higher in recent years, but that isn’t likely to be the case going forward. Tepid U.S. economic growth, a Fed intent on hiking rates and a stock market that is overvalued here means that the smart money is likely to seek alpha outside of America.

eem

The most logical place for capital to flow to is emerging markets, as the growth metrics in other countries are far better than those here at home. Plus, many of these markets still have accommodative central banks.

Perhaps most importantly, most investors are still under-allocated to international stocks. When this allocation disparity gets corrected, we are liable to see big gains in sectors such as emerging markets.

3) More Sector Bets

Many investors have stuck with index investing on the S&P 500 and other broad-based indices in recent years. And that has worked well for many. However, next year is likely to be different, as investors are going to have to make more focused bets on specific sectors of the market that are liable to outperform.

ibb

One sector I like as a rebound play going forward is health care. This segment has taken some hits on fear of political crackdowns on drug pricing, and even price collusion lawsuits from the Justice Department. Yet the aging demographics here at home, and in places such as Japan and Europe, will continue driving strong demand for health services, drugs and other medical devices… and I think that will help drive biotech stocks higher in the months and years to come.

These three trends aren’t the only ones I am watching here, but they are going to be part of the lens with which I view the markets going forward.

If you’d like to look through that lens with me, then I invite you to look at my Successful ETF Investing advisory service, right now.

***Publisher’s Note***

I am happy to announce that Mike Turner has joined the Eagle Financial Publications family. Mike and I sat down for a short discussion about investing that you can listen to by clicking here now.

In this interview, you will get to know Mike better and learn a few other things, such as:
  • Why most people buy and sell stocks at the wrong time
  • Mike’s 10 Rules for Investing that everyone should know
  • Why Bloomberg put Mike’s investing “Tools” product on more than 330,000 of its computer terminals
  • And lots more!
Listen to Mike's insights on the markets by clicking here now.


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ETF Talk: Escaping Election Anxiety with an Emerging Markets Fund

Founded in 2007, the First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund ETF (FNI) looks to invest in promising businesses that are based in the emerging market countries of China and India.

After falling below $9 in early 2009, this exchange-traded fund (ETF) has since recovered 240% from that low and today is invested in some of the biggest names in Eastern markets. Objectively speaking, FNI looks to evenly split its asset allocations between opportunities in China and India.

The index which FNI follows, the ISE Chindia Index, compiles a semi-annual list of any Chinese or Indian companies whose American depository receipts (ADRs) are listed on a U.S. securities exchange and then ranks these companies based on liquidity. The top 25 most liquid stocks from each country are selected to be part of the index, meaning that no more than 50 positions are in the index at any one time.

Although FNI is incorporated in the United States and seeks companies listed on U.S. exchanges, this is the extent of the fund’s association with America. Indeed, 100% of the fund’s assets are allocated outside of the United States, a fact that makes FNI a potential “escape route” for investors looking to sit out the uncertain and volatile near-term future of U.S. markets. FNI is heavily invested in the technology (38%), consumer cyclicals (24%) and financial (17%) sectors of India and China.

With just $160 million in managed assets, FNI is by no means a huge ETF. However, its available funds have been allocated extensively to many of the companies at the forefront of helping to build these emerging markets. Top holdings include e-commerce company Alibaba (BABA), 8.19%; JD.com, Inc. (JD), 7.5%; ICICI Bank, Ltd. (IBN), 6.9%; China’s equivalent of Google -- Baidu, Inc. (BIDU), 6.67%; and internet technology company NetEase (NTES), 5.7%.

fni

As continued evidence of the strength of emerging markets in 2016, FNI has outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year, returning 7.7% year to date despite a $1-$2 fall in the last month or so.

In September, FNI paid out its highest dividend in more than three years, amounting to a 0.9% per share payout annually, an encouraging indication that insiders believe FNI has good management, financials and room for future growth. The fund’s expense ratio currently stands at 0.60%.

In summary, FNI is an alternative emerging markets fund that offers American investors easy access to some of the most influential companies in India and China. If you are worried about how the election will affect U.S.-based markets over the coming months, or are interested in trying to ride the bullish trend in emerging markets, it may be worth your while to examine the First Trust ISE Chindia Index Fund ETF (FNI) more closely.

As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an email. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.


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.Election Wisdom

“People never lie so much as after a hunt, during a war or before an election.”

-- Otto von Bismarck

The first chancellor of Germany was a politician extraordinaire, so who better than to remind us that the hyperbole, exaggeration and downright lies are at their highest right before an election. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Click here to ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week about the signals the bond market is sending to investors.
All the best,
Doug Fabian
Doug Fabian
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