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Weekly ETF Report: The Caution of Commodities

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 Fabian's Weekly ETF Report
Fabian.com |  Weekly ETF Report  |  Successful ETF Investing 07/31/2015
In This Issue:
  • Video AlertVideoCamera
  • Podcasts
  • The Caution of Commodities
  • In This Week’s ETFU Podcast…
  • ‘ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!
  • ETF Talk: Top International Dividend ETF is Worth Considering
  • Wheels Within Wheels in a Spiral Array
By: Doug Fabian | Editor, Successful ETF Investing | President, Fabian Wealth Strategies
The Caution of Commodities
You’ll Never Guess Who’s About to Crash the DOW
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One of the most startling charts I’ve seen in a long time is the DB Commodities Tracking Index Fund (DBC).

This is the widely followed benchmark index of the commodities space, and it includes the metals, grains, oil, soybeans and sugar. The broad-based nature of DBC means it’s a great way to get a handle on global commodity prices.

It’s also a great way to see what global demand looks like.

DBC_073115

As you can see, the chart here of DBC looks downright ugly, with the fund now falling to all-time lows. The current price of DBC is way below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, and the route in the sector has actually picked up a lot of steam just since July.

DBC is down nearly 38% during the past 12 months, and there is no doubt that this fund is in a confirmed bear market.

So, why are commodities plunging so much?

The main reason is global demand, which can be translated to a lack of global growth.

While some pockets of the world are seeing economic good times, major commodity consumers such as China are struggling to keep up the pace of growth.

Add to this mix a distinct oversupply of crude oil, or a “global oil glut” as many are calling it, and you get a distinct sense of discomfort about where the economy is headed.

Given this current situation, we are seeing many commodity-related pressures on global equity markets, particularly in the emerging markets. That segment also is in a bear market this year, and that’s a cautionary tale for stocks in the broader international markets and right here at home.

If you want a complete picture of how global markets are being influenced by the commodity plunge, then I strongly encourage you to check out this week’s brief four-minute Weekly ETF Report video.

This video will show you how DBC is at the heart of the current global equity market action. It also will show you that even if you don’t own commodities, your money could be at extreme risk.

Check out my Weekly ETF Report video today.


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In This Week’s ETFU Podcast…

I just finished recording, and posting live, the latest edition of the ETFU.com podcast.

In this week’s show, I cover a variety of topics, all of which are crucial to becoming a better ETF investor.

I start off the show with some tips on how to spot a market trend coming a mile away, and how to confirm when that trend has reached critical mass. I also show you how to spot a trend reversal, as well as how to get yourself out of a sector before that reversal closes in on you.

The really big topic in this week’s show is gold and how to view the big meltdown in the yellow metal this year.

The chart here of gold shows us just how tarnished the precious metal has become in 2015.

GLD_073115

Gold now trades more than 30% below its 200-day moving average. That is a trend you will not see very often, and it tells us a lot about market components such as group psychology.

In fact, you can’t go anywhere around the financial media without seeing new gold bears pop up to tell you why they think gold is going lower.

Interestingly, with all of the gold haters out there, it may serve you very well down the road to become familiar with the ways you can take advantage of gold when the inevitable tide turns in favor of the yellow metal.

To help you do just that, we’ve updated our Special Report on Gold ETFs.

If you want to really understand what’s going on with gold, and how to spot trend changes in the market, then today’s ETFU Podcast is perfect for you.

‘ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!

Are you a regular listener to my radio show, “ETF Success with Doug Fabian”?

If not, then I hope you soon will be, and here’s your chance.

Today, I am very excited to announce that my weekly radio show is now syndicated nationally throughout the Salem radio network.

The table below shows the station, city and day and time the show will be aired (check your local listing for start dates, as not all stations carry the show yet).

WAFS-AM Business Radio 1190 Atlanta Sundays 6:00 am
WGKA-AM AM 920 The Answer Atlanta Sundays 10:00 am
WHK-AM AM 420 The Answer Cleveland Sundays 6:00 am
WTOH-FM 89.8 FM The Answer Columbus Sundays 5:00 pm
KVCE-AM AM 1160 The Business Authority Dallas Sundays 2:00 pm
WDTK-AM News Talk 1400 Detroit Sundays 8:00 am
KGU-AM AM 760 Business Radio Honolulu Wednesdays 2:00 pm
KNTH-AM AM 1070 The Answer Houston Weekdays 9:00 pm
KHTE-FM 96.5 FM The Answer Little Rock Saturdays 8:00 am
WGTK-AM AM 970 The Answer Louisville Saturdays 7:00 am
WZAB-AM AM 880 Business Radio Miami Sundays 2:00 pm
KYCR-AM AM 1570 Business Radio Minneapolis Sundays 6:00 am
WNYM-AM AM 970 The Answer New York Sundays 4:00 pm
WBZW-AM AM 1520 Business Radio Orlando Saturdays 8:00 am
WNTP-AM News Talk 990 AM Philadelphia Sundays 9:00 am
KKNT-AM 960 AM The Patriot Phoenix Saturdays 5:00 am
WPGP-AM AM 1250 The Answer Pittsburgh Saturdays and Sundays 5:00 pm
KSAC-FM Money 105.5 FM Sacramento Saturdays 9:00 am
KLUP-AM AM 930 The Answer San Antonio Saturdays 6:00 pm
KCBQ-AM AM 1170 The Answer San Diego Sundays 3:00 pm
KDOW-AM AM 1220 Business Radio San Francisco Sundays 8:00 am
KKOL-AM AM 1300 Business Radio Seattle Wednesdays 3:00 pm
KLFE-AM AM 1590 The Answer Seattle Saturdays 1:00 pm
WGUL-AM AM 860 The Answer Tampa Saturdays 5:00 pm
WWRC-AM AM 1260 The Answer Wash. DC Sundays 4:00 pm


The syndication of “ETF Success with Doug Fabian” is something I’ve been looking forward to for some time, and it’s a dream come true for me.

I hope you’ll join me in living this dream each week, on the station, day and time near you.


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ETF Talk: Top International Dividend ETF is Worth Considering

The appeal of a dividend-oriented strategy is clear and established. A dividend payment not only puts cash in investors’ hands, but it also is a sign of strength if a company can afford to distribute cash to its shareholders. This second point ideally also is accompanied by share-price appreciation to give investors two ways to profit from the same investment.

One fund that is designed to provide both benefits is the WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFE), which is the top-performing international, dividend-paying exchange-traded fund (ETF) so far in 2015.

The index tracked by this international dividend fund uses a system to identify the smallest-cap stocks from a list of European dividend-paying companies. To that end, 85% of its holdings are classified as small-cap stocks. The index contains a total of 417 securities.

Small-cap dividend payers are not the easiest to find, as small-cap firms often need every penny they can muster to grow, but they are out there, as DFE shows. View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of DFE at ETFU.com.

Year to date, DFE has gained a strong 13.13%, plus dividend payments. Its dividend yield is currently about 2.6%, and the expense ratio for this fund is a modest 0.58%. The fund’s dividend fluctuates somewhat, but not so much as to cause serious worry. DFE usually pays quarterly, with the June payout much larger than the others because of the payout schedules used by many European companies. DFE has a hefty $1.02 billion in assets under management.

DFE_073115

Top holdings for this fund include Holmen (HOLMB), 1.34%; Axis Communications (AXIS), 1.21%; Peab (PEABB), 1.09%; Betsson (BETSB), 0.95%; and Loomis (LOOMB), 0.80%. DFE’s top 10 holdings total only 7.86% of its assets. On a sector-by-sector basis, 27.29% of the fund’s assets are invested in industrials, 19.19% in financials and 16.73% in consumer discretionary companies.

If its recent strong performance impresses you and you also are seeking a way to invest in Europe and small-cap stocks that pay a dividend, WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund (DFE) fits the bill. Remember to look for the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of DFE on ETFU.com.

Of course, there are many ways to play the dividend game in an ETF, depending on what you are seeking. Next week, watch for my write-up about the second-ranked international, dividend-paying ETF for the first six months of 2015.

If you want my advice about buying and selling specific ETFs, including appropriate stop losses, please consider subscribing to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter. As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an e-mail. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.

Wheels Within Wheels in a Spiral Array

Wheels within wheels
In a spiral array
A pattern so grand
And complex
Time after time
We lose sight of the way
Our causes can’t see
Their effects

-- RUSH, “Natural Science”

One of the greatest rock bands ever, RUSH is known for their intricate musicianship as well as the profundity of their lyrics. Here, the band reminds us not to get caught up in our own inner-personal worlds. If we do, we can easily miss out on all of the heavenly glory.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow Weekly ETF Report readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week on Eagle Daily Investor about why the market had a weak week. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

All the best,
Doug Fabian
Doug Fabian

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