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Weekly ETF Report: Bad Things Happen Under the 200-Day Average

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 Fabian's Weekly ETF Report
Fabian.com |  ETFU.com  |  Weekly ETF Report  |  Successful ETF Investing 08/28/2015
In This Issue:
  • Video Alert
  • Podcasts
  • Bad Things Happen Under the 200-Day Average
  • ETF Talk: Trusted Covered-Call Income Producer
  • ‘ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!
  • The Power of ‘If--’
By: Doug Fabian | Editor, Successful ETF Investing | President, Fabian Wealth Strategies
Bad Things Happen Under the 200-Day Average
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To describe this wild week as anything but the epitome of craziness would be the height of understatement. So, I’ll dispense with a recap and just say that the nearly unprecedented volatility and market swings since Wednesday, Aug. 19, are an example of the kinds of bad things that tend to happen when stocks trade below their 200-day moving average.

When markets plunge below the 200-day average, there’s a heightened sense of fear from both traders and investors that this could be “the big one,” i.e., the start of the next big market downturn.

On Monday, the first hour of trading seemed like we were headed for just such a death spiral, as the Dow plunged 1,089 points in the first five minutes.

dia_082815

Perhaps more disturbing was the plunge in many exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that morning. The massive mispricing of many of the market’s biggest ETFs is being called a “mini flash crash.”

The reason why is because some ETFs were down 30%, 40% and even 50% in early Monday trade.

One main reason for this was the influx of sell orders that flooded the market after so many individual investors went to their online brokerage accounts to put in sell orders “at the market.”

Another key reason that caused these massive price discrepancies was a little-known, and rarely used, Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regulation called “Rule 48.”

Rule 48 permits designated market makers to not tell anyone where things are going to open until they start trading. This lack of transparency takes critical information away from markets, and the “blindness” that ensued allowed so many to sell into the landslide.

While Monday’s extreme volatility hit ETFs very hard, it was far less a case of a flaw in the ETFs themselves that was responsible for the mispricing and much more a case of poor management, bad rules and scared investors running for the exits.

One way to remove the fear is to not be in stocks when they trade below their 200-day moving average. This critical principle is what my Successful ETF Investing newsletter service has been built on for nearly four decades.

In addition to not tempting fate and being in stocks when the fear factor is high, you also should not be trading during the first hour, especially on a Monday after sell orders have backed up during the weekend.

Moreover, you should not use “market orders” when you trade. Rather, you should use “limit orders” which will only be filled at the price floor you set.

Finally, do not trade when the markets are gyrating like crazy.

If there is one lesson to takeaway from this week, it is this: in times of turmoil, it’s best to keep your head about you, stay calm and look carefully before you leap.

If you are a serious ETF investor, now more than ever you need my Successful ETF Investing advisory service. My subscribers remained calm, and in the safety of cash, throughout the past couple of volatile weeks, and as such, our portfolios remain intact.


The Truth Behind Vanguard’s Warning to Advisors
We recently received a reminder of just how volatile the market can be. The 1,000-point Dow drop was certainly a shocking event, and industry titan Vanguard claims this could be the start of a “lower growth world.” If only that were the case...

One leading market advisor -- a man with nearly four decades of market timing experience -- is now predicting that this could be the sign of much worse things to come. When you click here to read his new research, not only will you discover why over 30% of your investments could quickly disappear… you’ll learn the three simple steps to take to protect your wealth from what could be the “next 2008 moment.” Click here now to learn their names and how to play them for gains of up to 15.6%!

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ETF Talk: Trusted Covered-Call Income Producer

Even in market areas that are underperforming, there always are some stocks and funds that hold up better than the rest, demonstrating remarkable relative strength. U.S. dividend and income equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) generally were hurt badly during the first half of 2015, but there still have been some relative stars in the category.

One of these funds is First Trust Low Beta Income ETF (FTLB), the second-best-performing fund of this type in the year’s first six months.

View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of FTLB at ETFU.com.

This fund differs from ones investors typically would expect to find under the “income-based” categorization. Unlike many other dividend funds, FTLB does not focus on stocks that pay dividends. Instead, it buys large-cap, big-name stocks like Apple and General Electric, some of which pay dividends and some of which do not. Then it executes its “options strategy,” selling covered calls on its positions to generate income for its shareholders by collecting premium payments for its selling the options.

This strategy seems to have paid off, relatively speaking, given the largely stagnant markets during the first half of the year. This fund was able to return 0.69% while also yielding 3.51%, which in some ways could make it a better performer during the period than the category’s No. 1-ranked fund, DGRS.

FTLB is tiny, with only $4 million in assets managed. As this fund has less than $100 million in assets, it falls beneath my recommended threshold for investment. However, this fund’s strategy is one that is worth bringing to your attention. The more knowledge you have as an investor, the better you can make informed decisions.

This fund bucked the trend and actually gained value in Q2, a time when many of its peers experienced setbacks.

ftlb_082815

In addition, 23.52% of this fund’s assets are invested in its top 10 holdings. Among them are Apple Inc. (AAPL), 4.12%; Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), 2.59%; General Electric Co. (GE), 2.45%; Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), 2.36%; and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), 2.32%.

If you are interested in seeking income using a covered-call strategy, First Trust Low Beta Income ETF (FTLB) represents a way to accomplish this without having to write the calls yourself, and the fund boasts a solid track record.

Remember to look for the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of FTLB at ETFU.com.

If you want my advice about buying and selling specific ETFs, including appropriate stop losses, please consider subscribing to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter. As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an e-mail. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.


Yields Up to 15.6% with these High-Yield Havens
A recent poll found that 92% of Americans believe there’s a retirement crisis, and it’s not hard to understand why. With the cost of living skyrocketing while Social Security and pensions shrink, many people who dreamt of retiring in their 50s or 60s now realize they’ll have to work well into their golden years just to make ends meet.

But luckily for them, one analyst has just released a brand new report that details four “high-yield havens” that offer the chance at consistent, double-digit income. Click here now to learn their names and how to play them for gains of up to 15.6%!

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‘ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!

Are you a regular listener to my radio show, “ETF Success with Doug Fabian”?

If not, then I hope you soon will be, and here’s your chance.

Today, I am very excited to announce that my weekly radio show is now syndicated nationally throughout the Salem radio network.

The table below shows the station, city and day and time the show will be aired (check your local listing for start dates, as not all stations carry the show yet).
WAFS-AM Business Radio 1190 Atlanta Sundays 6:00 am
WGKA-AM AM 920 The Answer Atlanta Sundays 10:00 am
WHK-AM AM 420 The Answer Cleveland Sundays 6:00 am
WTOH-FM 89.8 FM The Answer Columbus Sundays 5:00 pm
KVCE-AM AM 1160 The Business Authority Dallas Sundays 2:00 pm
WDTK-AM News Talk 1400 Detroit Sundays 8:00 am
KGU-AM AM 760 Business Radio Honolulu Wednesdays 2:00 pm
KNTH-AM AM 1070 The Answer Houston Weekdays 9:00 pm
KHTE-FM 96.5 FM The Answer Little Rock Saturdays 8:00 am
WGTK-AM AM 970 The Answer Louisville Saturdays 7:00 am
WZAB-AM AM 880 Business Radio Miami Sundays 2:00 pm
KYCR-AM AM 1570 Business Radio Minneapolis Sundays 6:00 am
WNYM-AM AM 970 The Answer New York Sundays 4:00 pm
WBZW-AM AM 1520 Business Radio Orlando Saturdays 8:00 am
WNTP-AM News Talk 990 AM Philadelphia Sundays 9:00 am
KKNT-AM 960 AM The Patriot Phoenix Saturdays 5:00 am
WPGP-AM AM 1250 The Answer Pittsburgh Saturdays and Sundays 5:00 pm
KSAC-FM Money 105.5 FM Sacramento Saturdays 9:00 am
KLUP-AM AM 930 The Answer San Antonio Saturdays 6:00 pm
KCBQ-AM AM 1170 The Answer San Diego Sundays 3:00 pm
KDOW-AM AM 1220 Business Radio San Francisco Sundays 8:00 am
KKOL-AM AM 1300 Business Radio Seattle Wednesdays 3:00 pm
KLFE-AM AM 1590 The Answer Seattle Saturdays 1:00 pm
WGUL-AM AM 860 The Answer Tampa Saturdays 5:00 pm
WWRC-AM AM 1260 The Answer Wash. DC Sundays 4:00 pm
The syndication of “ETF Success with Doug Fabian” is something I’ve been looking forward to for some time, and it’s a dream come true for me.

I hope you’ll join me in living this dream each week, on the station, day and time near you.

The Power of ‘If--’

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you…
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And—which is more—you’ll be a Man, my son.


-- Rudyard Kipling, “If--”

Weeks like these remind us that keeping our heads about us at all times is a most-important virtue. In fact, whenever things in your life get crazy, you might want to sit down and read a little Rudyard Kipling and study the life lessons in his masterwork, “If--."

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow Weekly ETF Report readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week on Eagle Daily Investor about three major market indices approaching bear market status. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

All the best,
Doug Fabian
Doug Fabian
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