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Weekly ETF Report: It's More Like 2011 than 2014

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 Fabian's Weekly ETF Report
Fabian.com |  ETFU.com  |  Weekly ETF Report  |  Successful ETF Investing 09/04/2015
In This Issue:
  • Video Alert
  • Podcasts
  • It’s More Like 2011 Than 2014
  • ETF Talk: Selective Dividend-Focused ETF
  • ‘ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!
  • It Must Be Labor Day…
By: Doug Fabian | Editor, Successful ETF Investing | President, Fabian Wealth Strategies
It’s More Like 2011 than 2014
The Truth Behind Vanguard’s Warning to Advisors
We recently received a reminder of just how volatile the market can be. The 1,000-point Dow drop was certainly a shocking event, and industry titan Vanguard claims this could be the start of a “lower growth world.” If only that were the case...

One leading market advisor -- a man with nearly four decades of market timing experience -- is now predicting that this could be the sign of much worse things to come. When you click here to read his new research, not only will you discover why over 30% of your investments could quickly disappear… you’ll learn the three simple steps to take to protect your wealth from what could be the “next 2008 moment.” Click here now to learn their names and how to play them for gains of up to 15.6%!

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The latest bout of selling in equity markets has been compared to the big drop below the 200-day moving average that occurred in October 2014.

While the 2014 breakdown was similar to what’s happened this year in terms of its rapid descent, looking at the big picture, the current decline appears to me to be more like what happened in 2011 than what happened in 2014.

The chart below of the S&P 500 index over the past five years tells the story nicely.

spx_0904

Here we see that in 2014, we had what’s called a “V-shaped” bottom in stocks. There was a sharp breakdown below the 200-day moving average (blue line) and then a subsequent swift move back above the 200-day moving average (MA) that kept stocks grinding higher until this July.

In 2011, we had a swift breakdown below the 200-day MA in August, but the difference between 2011 and 2014 is that the market stayed well below the 200-day MA for most of the rest of the year.

In fact, it took Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) to kick buyers back into the market and to send stocks back above their long-term trend line.

I suspect that we are in the same situation now as we were back in 2011. This is not going to be a 2014 “V-shaped” bottom. Rather, I think we are in for a tough slog through the remainder of the year.

The big difference between this year and 2011 is that the Fed is on the verge of hiking interest rates this year, not easing up the way it did four years ago.

We won’t know what actually happens with the Fed until the Sept. 17 decision is announced, but what I think we can say with supreme confidence is that this market is in for more volatility until then.

If you are a serious ETF investor that wants to get positioned for the current volatility, you need my Successful ETF Investing advisory service. My subscribers have remained calm, and in the safety of cash, throughout the past several volatile weeks of selling.

If you’d like to find out how you can get that sense of calm too, click here.


No Company has Done this Since the 1970s
Four decades ago, a special regulation -- well, more of a restriction -- was imposed on an industry with sky-high profit potential. Ever since then, American companies have been trying to find a loophole with no success… until now.

A single company has become one of the most profitable in America by discovering a way to sidestep this old rule. In fact, they stand to make hundreds of millions of dollars starting this year. By clicking here now, you’ll learn their ticker symbol, their unique situation and how to play it for huge gains in 2015.

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ETF Talk: Selective Dividend-Focused ETF

This ETF Talk rounds out the category of the top-performing domestic dividend-paying exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the first half of 2015 with Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD).

View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of SYLD at ETFU.com.

This fund’s strategy for selecting companies in which to invest is threefold. SYLD focuses on companies that pay high dividends, repurchase their own shares (thereby driving up share prices by reducing the total number available) and pay down debt to improve their balance sheets. This three-part process results in a carefully selected portfolio of 100 stocks with strong free cash flow.

The fund gained 0.32% during the first-half of 2015, after pulling back in Q2. Though SYLD rose only slightly, the first two quarters of 2015 were difficult for the market, and any gain during that time is a show of strength.

In addition, this gain does not include its 1.5% annual dividend yield. This relatively new fund, created in 2013, already has about $225 million in assets.

As the chart below shows, outside of the large, recent, broad-market dip, this fund’s price has not suffered harsh setbacks. It actually remained fairly stable between March and August when the market slipped.

syld_0904

The fund also offers diversification, since just 13.83% of its assets are invested in its top 10 largest positions. Among them are O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (ORLY), 1.60%; CVS Health Corp. (CVS), 1.42%; Reynolds American Inc. (RAI), 1.42%; Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW), 1.41%; and Home Depot Inc. (HD), 1.39%.

If SYLD’s performance and shareholder-yield-based approach look like a winning combination, you may want to have some shares of Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF (SYLD) in your portfolio.

Remember to look for the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of SYLD at ETFU.com.

If you want my advice about buying and selling specific ETFs, including appropriate stop losses, please consider subscribing to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter. As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an e-mail. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.

 ‘ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!

Are you a regular listener to my radio show, “ETF Success with Doug Fabian”?

If not, then I hope you soon will be, and here’s your chance.

Today, I am very excited to announce that my weekly radio show is now syndicated nationally throughout the Salem radio network.

The table below shows the station, city, and day and time the show will be aired (check your local listing for start dates, as not all stations carry the show yet).
WAFS-AM Business Radio 1190 Atlanta Sundays 6:00 am
WGKA-AM AM 920 The Answer Atlanta Sundays 10:00 am
WHK-AM AM 420 The Answer Cleveland Sundays 6:00 am
WTOH-FM 89.8 FM The Answer Columbus Sundays 5:00 pm
KVCE-AM AM 1160 The Business Authority Dallas Sundays 2:00 pm
WDTK-AM News Talk 1400 Detroit Sundays 8:00 am
KGU-AM AM 760 Business Radio Honolulu Wednesdays 2:00 pm
KNTH-AM AM 1070 The Answer Houston Weekdays 9:00 pm
KHTE-FM 96.5 FM The Answer Little Rock Saturdays 8:00 am
WGTK-AM AM 970 The Answer Louisville Saturdays 7:00 am
WZAB-AM AM 880 Business Radio Miami Sundays 2:00 pm
KYCR-AM AM 1570 Business Radio Minneapolis Sundays 6:00 am
WNYM-AM AM 970 The Answer New York Sundays 4:00 pm
WBZW-AM AM 1520 Business Radio Orlando Saturdays 8:00 am
WNTP-AM News Talk 990 AM Philadelphia Sundays 9:00 am
KKNT-AM 960 AM The Patriot Phoenix Saturdays 5:00 am
WPGP-AM AM 1250 The Answer Pittsburgh Saturdays and Sundays 5:00 pm
KSAC-FM Money 105.5 FM Sacramento Saturdays 9:00 am
KLUP-AM AM 930 The Answer San Antonio Saturdays 6:00 pm
KCBQ-AM AM 1170 The Answer San Diego Sundays 3:00 pm
KDOW-AM AM 1220 Business Radio San Francisco Sundays 8:00 am
KKOL-AM AM 1300 Business Radio Seattle Wednesdays 3:00 pm
KLFE-AM AM 1590 The Answer Seattle Saturdays 1:00 pm
WGUL-AM AM 860 The Answer Tampa Saturdays 5:00 pm
WWRC-AM AM 1260 The Answer Wash. DC Sundays 4:00 pm

The syndication of “ETF Success with Doug Fabian” is something I’ve been looking forward to for some time, and it’s a dream come true for me.

I hope you’ll join me in living this dream each week, on the station, day and time near you.


The Best Dividend Toolkit Available
Between today’s skyrocketing costs of living, disappearing pensions, a rocky stock market and measly interest rates, many Americans are worried about maintaining a steady stream of income to get them through their golden years. But what if I were to tell you there exists a resource that gives you a thorough glance at your portfolio to tell you how much dividend income you'll receive from it and allows you to research and locate “Dividend All-Stars?"

Ryan M. from Michigan says, "I don't make any stock selection prior to consulting www.DividendInvestor.com.”

This user-friendly site contains all of the tools you need to seek out, and profit from, the best income-producing stocks in the market today. Click here now to put it to work for your portfolio.

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It Must Be Labor Day…

“If all the cars in the United States were placed end to end, it would probably be Labor Day Weekend.”

-- Doug Larson

It’s Labor Day weekend, and if you are planning a road trip with friends and family, you’re not alone. Some estimates I’ve read say there is going to be record road travel this weekend, which is largely a consequence of the lowest gas prices at this time of year in more than a decade. And while taking that road trip can be fun, it’s important to remember to be safe, stay calm -- and to not let the stress of the road get the best of you.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week on Eagle Daily Investor about why bad things happen under the 200-day moving average. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

All the best,
Doug Fabian
Doug Fabian
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