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Weekly ETF Report: A Downright Ugly Q3

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 Fabian's Weekly ETF Report
Fabian.com |  ETFU.com  |  Weekly ETF Report  |  Successful ETF Investing 10/02/2015
In This Issue:
  • Podcasts
  • A Downright Ugly Q3
  • ETF Talk: Small Cap Stocks Outperform Most Other Chinese Funds
  • ‘ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!
  • Wisdom on Picking Battles
By: Doug Fabian | Editor, Successful ETF Investing | President, Fabian Wealth Strategies
A Downright Ugly Q3
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What can you say about a third quarter that witnessed the worst decline in the major domestic averages since 2011?

You call that a downright ugly Q3.

Just about everywhere you looked among domestic and global equities, it was easy to see a whole lot of red.

The table below of the top 10 domestic equity funds by year-to-date performance shows that even the best funds in 2015 saw a lot of bloodletting in Q3.

TICKER NAME 2015 Q3  YTD%
PNQI PowerShares NASDAQ Internet -5.80 2.97
RFG Rydex S&P Midcap 400 Pure Growth -6.57 1.49
MTUM ISHARES MSCI USA MOMENTUM -4.52 0.22
PWB PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap Growth -4.53 0.14
RZG Rydex S&P Smallcap 600 Pure Growth -10.27 -0.01
MNA IQ Arb Merger Arbitrage ETF -3.13 -0.36
FV FIRST TRUST DW FOCUS 5 FUND -10.31 -0.45
PBP PowerShares S&P 500 BuyWrite -3.07 -0.80
JKE iShares Morningstar Large Growth Index -5.65 -1.06
IVOG VANGUARD S&P MID-CAP 400 GRO -7.09 -1.09

Things were even worse internationally, as the table below of the top 10 global equity funds by year-to-date performance shows.

TICKER NAME 2015 Q3  YTD%
GWX SPDR S&P International Small Cap -9.83 0.77
RXI iShares S&P Global Consumer Discretion -6.51 0.25
FNDC SCHWAB FUNDAMENTAL INTL S/C -8.46 -0.66
KXI iShares S&P Global Consumer Staples -1.20 -0.84
SCHC SCHWAB INTL SMALL-CAP EQUITY -8.82 -1.07
IXJ iShares S&P Global Healthcare Sector -9.43 -1.09
ACWV ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRY WOR -3.92 -2.73
DBEF DB-X MSCI EAFE CURRENCY-HEDG -8.87 -3.41
GQRE FLEXSHARES GLOBAL QUALITY REAL ESTATE -3.32 -4.14
PSP PowerShares Listed Private Equity Portfolio -9.40 -4.37



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There is not much winning going on, either at home or abroad, in equity land in the third quarter.

We can attribute these declines to a toxic combination of global growth concerns fueled by China’s economic slowdown and the uncertainty of what the Fed is going to do about monetary policy.

Until both of these headwinds begin to tame, I suspect markets are in for a tough slog in Q4.

As for the major market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) we monitor every day, it was a familiar tale of woe.

TICKER NAME Q3% YTD%
DIA SPDR DJIA TRUST -7.51 -8.58
SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST -6.91 -6.77
QQQ POWERSHARES QQQ TRUST -4.96 -1.44
VTI VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MKT -7.76 -6.87
EFA ISHARES MSCI EAFE ETF -9.72 -5.79
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MKT -17.26 -16.57
FXI ISHARES CHINA LARGE-CAP ETF -23.06 -14.78
IEV ISHARES EUROPE ETF -8.99 -6.42
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF -10.77 1.69

The only market segment that did reasonably well was bonds, as you can see by the table below of three prominent bond ETFs.

TICKER NAME 2015 Q3% YTD%
TLT ISHARES 20+ YEAR TREASURY BO 5.18 -1.89
AGG ISHARES CORE U.S. AGGREGATE 0.74 -0.49
TFI SPDR NUVEEN BARCLAYS MUNI 1.64 -0.21

Yes, with the exception of bonds, Q3 was downright ugly, and there is just no putting lipstick on this third-quarter pig.

Fortunately, subscribers to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter were out of the market for most of Q3, as our proprietary Fabian Plan gave us the signal to step aside in domestic and international stocks well before the worst of the selling.

If you want to put the power of the Fabian Plan on your side, then please check out my Successful ETF Investing advisory service today!

ETF Talk: Small-Cap Stocks Outperform Most Other Chinese Funds

The Chinese market was very strong in the first half of 2015, so it is no surprise that the silver medalist for emerging-market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in that time period was another Chinese fund: Harvest CSI 500 China A-shares Small Cap ETF (ASHS).

That fund was one of the first to give foreign investors access to China A-share equities. ASHS tracks a group of 500 small-cap companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges. These companies range across a variety of sectors.

View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of ASHS at ETFU.com.

By the end of June, ASHS had gained 61.12% for the year. The performance of this fund and the top performer, Market Vectors ChinaAMC SME-ChiNext ETF (NYSE: CNXT), were much stronger than any other funds in the category, with more than double the returns of the third-best fund.

Even in the less bullish Q2, ASHS was able to gain 17.31%. Overall, that part of the year saw highly impressive performances out of China, especially in CNXT and ASHS. Since June, the performance of ASHS has suffered, as the fund has given back much of the gain.

This fund held $71.27 million in assets under management at mid-year. This amount falls beneath my recommended threshold for investment. However, this ETF’s strategy is one that is worth bringing to your attention. The more knowledge you have as an investor, the better you can make informed decisions.

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The top 10 holdings for this fund make up 7.91% of its investments. The top five are Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd., 1.40%; Yihua Timber Industry Co. Ltd., 0.91%; Hainan Haiyao Co. Ltd., 0.81%; Shanghai Feilo Co. Ltd., 0.78%; and Zhongyuan Union Cell & Gene Engineering Co. Ltd., 0.74%. The fund is spread across most sectors, but its largest components are industrials, consumer discretionary and materials.

Small-cap stocks should perform well in a Chinese stock market recovery. If you think the end of the Chinese bear market is coming soon, Harvest CSI 500 China A-shares Small Cap ETF (ASHS) may be a good place to look for guidance.

Remember to look for the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of ASHS at ETFU.com.

If you want my advice about buying and selling specific ETFs, including appropriate stop losses, please consider subscribing to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter.

As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an e-mail. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.

********************


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********************


‘ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!

Are you a regular listener to my radio show, “ETF Success with Doug Fabian”?

If not, then I hope you soon will be, and here’s your chance.

Today, I am very excited to announce that my weekly radio show is now syndicated nationally throughout the Salem radio network.

The table below shows the station, city and day and time the show will be aired (check your local listing for start dates, as not all stations carry the show yet).

WAFS-AM Business Radio 1190 Atlanta Sundays 6:00 am
WGKA-AM AM 920 The Answer Atlanta Sundays 10:00 am
WHK-AM AM 420 The Answer Cleveland Sundays 6:00 am
WTOH-FM 89.8 FM The Answer Columbus Sundays 5:00 pm
KVCE-AM AM 1160 The Business Authority Dallas Sundays 2:00 pm
WDTK-AM News Talk 1400 Detroit Sundays 8:00 am
KGU-AM AM 760 Business Radio Honolulu Wednesdays 2:00 pm
KNTH-AM AM 1070 The Answer Houston Weekdays 9:00 pm
KHTE-FM 96.5 FM The Answer Little Rock Saturdays 8:00 am
WGTK-AM AM 970 The Answer Louisville Saturdays 7:00 am
WZAB-AM AM 880 Business Radio Miami Sundays 2:00 pm
KYCR-AM AM 1570 Business Radio Minneapolis Sundays 6:00 am
WNYM-AM AM 970 The Answer New York Sundays 4:00 pm
WBZW-AM AM 1520 Business Radio Orlando Saturdays 8:00 am
WNTP-AM News Talk 990 AM Philadelphia Sundays 9:00 am
KKNT-AM 960 AM The Patriot Phoenix Saturdays 5:00 am
WPGP-AM AM 1250 The Answer Pittsburgh Saturdays and Sundays 5:00 pm
KSAC-FM Money 105.5 FM Sacramento Saturdays 9:00 am
KLUP-AM AM 930 The Answer San Antonio Saturdays 6:00 pm
KCBQ-AM AM 1170 The Answer San Diego Sundays 3:00 pm
KDOW-AM AM 1220 Business Radio San Francisco Sundays 8:00 am
KKOL-AM AM 1300 Business Radio Seattle Wednesdays 3:00 pm
KLFE-AM AM 1590 The Answer Seattle Saturdays 1:00 pm
WGUL-AM AM 860 The Answer Tampa Saturdays 5:00 pm
WWRC-AM AM 1260 The Answer Wash. DC Sundays 4:00 pm

The syndication of “ETF Success with Doug Fabian” is something I’ve been looking forward to for some time, and it’s a dream come true for me.

I hope you’ll join me in living this dream each week, on the station, day and time near you.

Wisdom on Picking Battles

“He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious.”

-- Sun Tzu, “The Art of War”

We all know that sometimes, the best thing to do in a difficult situation is just walk away. That’s true of conflict with others, and it’s also true of investing. In fact, knowing when to get in the fight and when to stay away is one of the biggest lessons investors need to learn -- but often don’t. If you want to succeed, then learn when to fight and when the fight is not worth it. Doing so will help you be victorious.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week on Eagle Daily Investor about the implications of Janet Yellen's speech at the University of Massachusetts. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

All the best,
Doug Fabian
Doug Fabian
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