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Weekly ETF Report: A Jobs Report Even Yellen Can't Ignore

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 Fabian's Weekly ETF Report
Fabian.com |  ETFU.com  |  Weekly ETF Report  |  Successful ETF Investing 11/06/2015
In This Issue:
  • Podcasts
  • A Jobs Report Even Yellen Can’t Ignore
  • An ETF for the Next Cyber Attack
  • ETF Talk: Broad Financial Fund Holds Big Names
  • Six Questions to Ask Before You Buy Any ETF
  • On Lying
By: Doug Fabian | Editor, Successful ETF Investing | President, Fabian Wealth Strategies
A Jobs Report Even Yellen Can’t Ignore


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A Jobs Report Even Yellen Can’t Ignore

I woke up this morning to news that the U.S. economy added 271,000 jobs in October, and that the unemployment rate had fallen to 5%. Maybe even more important than those positive headline numbers was the average hourly earnings metric, which rose to 2.4% during the month.

I say that with some uncertainty, because this last measure of the employment picture is something that has lagged significantly for some time. As a measure of wage inflation, this metric is also something the Federal Reserve has been watching for some time, as it relates to overall inflation.

The combination of a strong jobs report, a lower unemployment rate and rising wages is something that I think not even the “dovish” Fed Chair Janet Yellen can ignore. As such, I suspect we will see a 25-basis-point increase in the Federal Funds rate when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets in December.

Now to some market observers, this is going to be a negative for equities. I don’t agree with that observation. I think that the Fed finally hiking rates, after being at near-zero for so many years, is going to be the first real sign that the U.S. economy is in strong enough shape to handle the very slight increase in the cost of capital. I also think that, over the long term (throughout 2016), the move by the Fed will be a positive one for the stock market.

Will there be an immediate sell-off in stocks when the Fed finally does raise rates? Probably, but that is a dip that I would be inclined to buy into, as it likely would be just some fast-money traders nabbing profits.

As for the markets, the long-term trend now for domestic stocks is a confirmed bull. The chart below of the S&P 500 Index clearly shows that the broad measure of the U.S. equity market trades well above both its 50- and 200-day moving averages.

WEtF 20151106 2

The outstanding run higher in stocks in October was the catalyst for the move back above the key 200-day trend line. The breaching of this key moving average also helped give the Fabian Domestic Plan, the backbone of my Successful ETF Investing newsletter service, a new equity buy signal.

As for bonds, the much-better-than-expected jobs report has increased the chances of a rate hike in December substantially, and that has had a marked effect on both Treasury bond and the dollar. Treasury bonds slumped on the news (yields spiked) as higher rates are bond bearish.

WEtF 20151106 3

Conversely, higher rates are bullish for the U.S. dollar vs. rival foreign currencies, and we saw that reflected in the 1.2% jump in the PowerShares US Dollar Bullish ETF (UUP).

WeTF 20151106 4

If the dollar continues to get stronger on the growing likelihood of a Fed rate hike in December, then you can be sure this will have major implications for emerging market stocks, European stocks and Asian stocks.

Over the next six weeks or so, we’ll be keeping a very close watch on bonds and the dollar for any clues as to what could take place in global equity markets and, of course, what it means for investors going forward -- so be sure not to miss a single issue of the Weekly ETF Report.

An ETF for the Next Cyber Attack

Cybersecurity is a serious problem.

From the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, to M.I.T., to American Airlines and Ashley Madison -- the cyber hits just keep rolling along, and doing serious damage to the U.S. economy.


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Over the past several years, the volume of high-profile attacks has sparked a massive demand for cyber defense.

What that means for you is the opportunity to profit from one of the most innovative ETFs to come to market over the past few years, the PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK).

WETF 20151106 1

I really believe in this fund, which is why I recently hosted a free online webinar featuring a panel of cybersecurity and investment experts from PureFunds.

Now, I am happy to tell you that a replay of that free webinar is available for viewing right now.

If you want to understand the cybersecurity boom and how to properly invest in this burgeoning area, this free webinar is a must.

I guarantee you’ll feel more secure knowing that some great companies are out there waging the cyber war against hackers, identity thieves and other nefarious sorts.

ETF Talk: Broad Financial Fund Holds Big Names

The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), the fourth exchange-traded fund (ETF) in our series on select sector ETFs, focuses on one of the larger sections of the S&P 500, with the financial sector amounting to about 16% of that index. XLF provides broad exposure to the U.S. financial services sector and seeks investment results that match the performance of the Financial Select Sector Index.

View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of XLF at ETFU.com.

The Financial Select Sector Index includes the following industries, among others: insurance, consumer banks, diversified financial services and real estate management and development.

The financial sector is one area of the market that has not returned to its “pre-crisis highs” as spectacularly as others have. XLF is down 1.53% year to date, but it has risen nearly 10% since hitting its 2015 low in late August, as shown in the chart below. The current dividend yield is small, sitting at less than two percent, but so far it has risen slightly for all three quarters of 2015. XLF’s expense ratio is 0.14%, and it has over $18 billion in assets managed.

WETF 20151106 5

This fund’s top 10 holdings comprise about 48% of its total assets. Given the amount of assets XLF manages and its sizable role in the S&P 500, this number might seem rather low. Yet, nearly all of these 10 positions are well known names in the financial world. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) takes the top spot, with 8.56% of assets, closely followed by Wells Fargo (WFC), 8.48%. Other major holdings include financial services company JPMorgan, 8.10%; Bank of America Corporation (BAC), 5.32%; and banking and financial services giant Citigroup (C), 5.39%.

If a stake in the large, but slowly recovering, financial sector seems appealing to you, you may want to take a look at Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). In this column next week, I’ll have another sector highlighted for your consideration.

Remember to look for the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of XLF at ETFU.com.

If you want my advice about buying and selling specific ETFs, including appropriate stop losses, please consider subscribing to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter.

As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an e-mail. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.


Hackers Cost Us $400 Billion Last Year
Learn how to profit from the Cybersecurity boom: FREE WEBINAR

Join host Doug Fabian and a panel of cyber security experts in our free webinar, Investing in the Solutions to Cybersecurity Threats. In it, you’ll learn all about the world’s first cybersecurity ETF, trends and investment themes in the booming cybersecurity sector and more. Click here for free webinar access.

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Six Questions to Ask Before You Buy Any ETF

I often am asked by readers, radio show listeners and clients about exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Why I like them so much, why they are better than mutual funds, why I prefer them to individual stocks, etc.

Today, I am going to provide a few questions for you, questions you should ask yourself before you buy any ETF.

Here is my list of the six key questions you must ask before you commit your investment capital to an exchange-traded fund.

1) Why am I buying? Do you need to generate growth from your assets, or is income more what you are looking for? Are you buying this ETF for a long-term hold, or do you plan on trading the fund? The first question of why you are buying is all about you and your goals, so the more defined your objectives are, the better your outcome is likely to be.

2) What asset class am I buying? Is this ETF an equity (stock) fund, or is it a bond fund? Is it pegged to a specific market sector, or is it an inverse fund? Knowing what you are buying is critical, so make sure you are fully aware of what’s in that ETF.

3) What index is my ETF following? Is your ETF exposed to the S&P 500? Is it pegged to the Dow? Or, is it pegged to the NASDAQ 100? All three funds of this sort are broad-based equity funds, but they are not created equal in terms of composition and diversification. Knowing how diversified you are in a fund is important, and you know that by knowing what index the ETF follows.

4) What’s the cost? How much is that ETF going to cost you? What is its “expense ratio?” If you don’t know how much you’re paying for something, you can’t make a good decision about value.

5) What’s the asset size and volume of this ETF? Are you buying an ETF with a lot of liquidity and a lot of trading volume? Or, are you looking at an ETF with little assets under management and one that trades low volume. The answer here can make a difference when it comes to efficient trade execution and fund pricing, so be aware of the size of the ETFs you want to buy.

6) What’s my exit point? Do you know when you’re going to sell this ETF? How much downside can you handle? When will you take your winnings off the table? Only you can answer these questions based on your personal investing situation, but answer them you must if you want to be an efficient, and successful, ETF investor.

Finally, this week subscribers to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter received the first new domestic equity buy signal in some time. If you want to find out what we’re buying, then I invite you to check out the newsletter today

'ETF Success with Doug Fabian’ Goes National!

Are you a regular listener to my radio show, “ETF Success with Doug Fabian”?

If not, then I hope you soon will be, and here’s your chance.

Today, I am very excited to announce that my weekly radio show is now syndicated nationally throughout the Salem radio network.

The table below shows the station, city and day and time the show will be aired (check your local listing for start dates, as not all stations carry the show yet).
WAFS-AM Business Radio 1190 Atlanta Sundays 6:00 am
WGKA-AM AM 920 The Answer Atlanta Sundays 10:00 am
WHK-AM AM 420 The Answer Cleveland Sundays 6:00 am
WTOH-FM 89.8 FM The Answer Columbus Sundays 5:00 pm
KVCE-AM AM 1160 The Business Authority Dallas Sundays 2:00 pm
WDTK-AM News Talk 1400 Detroit Sundays 8:00 am
KGU-AM AM 760 Business Radio Honolulu Wednesdays 2:00 pm
KNTH-AM AM 1070 The Answer Houston Weekdays 9:00 pm
KHTE-FM 96.5 FM The Answer Little Rock Saturdays 8:00 am
WGTK-AM AM 970 The Answer Louisville Saturdays 7:00 am
WZAB-AM AM 880 Business Radio Miami Sundays 2:00 pm
KYCR-AM AM 1570 Business Radio Minneapolis Sundays 6:00 am
WNYM-AM AM 970 The Answer New York Sundays 4:00 pm
WBZW-AM AM 1520 Business Radio Orlando Saturdays 8:00 am
WNTP-AM News Talk 990 AM Philadelphia Sundays 9:00 am
KKNT-AM 960 AM The Patriot Phoenix Saturdays 5:00 am
WPGP-AM AM 1250 The Answer Pittsburgh Saturdays and Sundays 5:00 pm
KSAC-FM Money 105.5 FM Sacramento Saturdays 9:00 am
KLUP-AM AM 930 The Answer San Antonio Saturdays 6:00 pm
KCBQ-AM AM 1170 The Answer San Diego Sundays 3:00 pm
KDOW-AM AM 1220 Business Radio San Francisco Sundays 8:00 am
KKOL-AM AM 1300 Business Radio Seattle Wednesdays 3:00 pm
KLFE-AM AM 1590 The Answer Seattle Saturdays 1:00 pm
WGUL-AM AM 860 The Answer Tampa Saturdays 5:00 pm
WWRC-AM AM 1260 The Answer Wash. DC Sundays 4:00 pm

The syndication of “ETF Success with Doug Fabian” is something I’ve been looking forward to for some time, and it’s a dream come true for me.

I hope you’ll join me in living this dream each week, on the station, day and time near you.

On Lying

“The most common lie is that which one lies to himself; lying to others is relatively an exception.”

--Friedrich Nietzsche

We are in the midst of presidential primary season, and that means the lies, half truths and hyperbole are coming from every corner of the political spectrum. As voters and conscientious citizens, we have an obligation to seek the truth from the candidates, as truth really does matter when it comes to selecting the right person for the most powerful office in the land. Here’s to hoping that truth prevails, wherever that truth may lead.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week about the most important questions to answer ahead of buying an ETF. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

All the best,
Doug Fabian
Doug Fabian
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