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Weekly ETF Report: Three ETFs That Spell Trouble Ahead

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 Fabian's Weekly ETF Report
Fabian.com |  ETFU.com  |  Weekly ETF Report  |  Successful ETF Investing 11/13/2015
In This Issue:
  • Podcasts
  • Three ETFs That Spell Trouble Ahead
  • ETF Talk: Consumer Investment Mirrors Broader Economy
  • Six Questions to Ask Before You Buy Any ETF
  • An ETF for the Next Cyber Attack
  • On Simplicity
By: Doug Fabian | Editor, Successful ETF Investing | President, Fabian Wealth Strategies
Three ETFs That Spell Trouble Ahead
You’ll Never Guess Who’s About to Crash the DOW
Don’t believe all of the rhetoric you’re hearing about President Obama’s “clueless” leadership… he knows exactly what he’s doing. His hidden agenda is slowly but surely coming to fruition behind the backs of the American people.

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Stocks were markedly lower this week, as fear is now brewing on Wall Street about the growing likelihood of the first interest rate hike in nearly a decade as soon as next month.

The major indices all were down more than 3% for the week, but I think this has a lot to do with a sort of normal “digestion” after the nearly 9% run we saw in the major indices in October.

Now, while I think this week’s pullback in stocks is both normal and not too much to worry about right now, there are several other exchange-traded funds (ETFs) I watch daily that are starting to spell trouble -- not just for their respective market segments, but for risk assets in general.

The first is the iPath S&P GSCI Oil (OIL). This fund is pegged to the price of crude oil. As you can see by the chart below, oil prices have just cratered this year.

OIL

A massive glut in oil supply and a slowdown in demand globally have teamed up to put pressure on the cost of crude such as we haven’t seen in years. Continued slow growth in commodity-consuming countries such as China, a Saudi price war and the fracking boom here in North America now have the world awash in oil, and that has many fearful of a wider global economic slowdown in the works.

The oil glut, a strong U.S. dollar and the likelihood of rising interest rates have created weak commodity demand globally. That’s put added pricing pressure on industrial commodities such as copper, and that has really slammed emerging market economies.

EEM

The preceding chart of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) shows the big breakdown in these stocks since April. There were some signs of a rebound in October, but since then the segment has failed to sustain that short-lived rally.

The final ETF I check, and one that’s been an early indicator of weakness to follow, gives the price of high-yield, or “junk,” bonds. These are the riskiest of bonds, but as such they pay very high yields.

jnk_1113

Right now, the benchmark ETF that’s pegged to the junk bond segment, the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK), has clearly suffered a breakdown. Not only is this a sign that the market expects the Fed is going to hike rates in December, it’s a sign that risk assets in general could be in for a rough ride going forward.

The bottom line here is that all three of these ETFs are signaling weakness for risk assets going forward, but there does remain strength in general in the U.S. economy. If the Fed does hike rates in December, that will be confirmation of this strength, and in the long term that will be good for risk assets.

If you want to know how to take advantage of the current trends in the market, and if you want to put a simple and proven plan in place that can get your portfolio on a winning track, then I invite you to check out my Successful ETF Investing newsletter today!


Hackers Cost Us $400 Billion Last Year
Learn how to profit from the Cybersecurity boom: FREE WEBINAR


Join host Doug Fabian and a panel of cybersecurity experts in our free webinar, Investing in the Solutions to Cybersecurity Threats. In it, you’ll learn all about the world’s first cybersecurity ETF, trends and investment themes in the booming cybersecurity sector and more.

Click here for free webinar access.

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ETF Talk: Consumer Investment Mirrors Broader Economy

The next exchange-traded fund (ETF) in this series on Select Sector ETFs covers the consumer discretionary sector, which accounts for about 13% of components in the S&P 500. The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector ETF (XLY), known until 2002 as the Cyclical/Transportation Select Sector SPDR, invests in companies in the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector Index and covers areas of the market that sell nonessential goods and services.

In other words, these are goods and services that people will spend more money on when economic sentiment is higher. This area can include media, restaurants, apparel, automobile and household durables businesses.

View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of XLY at ETFU.com.

As the state of the consumer discretionary sector is heavily dictated by the condition and sentiment of the market, it comes as no surprise that XLY’s price, shown below, rallied along with the market during October. XLY is up more than 13% from its low in late August. Its dividend yield currently sits at 1.3%. In addition, XLY has an expense ratio of only 0.15% and a hefty $11.5 billion in assets managed.

XLY

XLY’s top 10 holdings are from a wide variety of industries and backgrounds, reflecting the breadth of this “focused” sector, and total slightly less than 50% of the fund’s assets. Online sales giant Amazon (AMZN) is XLY’s top holding, with close to 10% of total assets. The second and third places are taken by the Walt Disney Company (DIS), with 7.31% of assets, and Home Depot, Inc. (HD), with 6.57% of assets. Rounding out the top five holdings are media company Comcast (CMCSA) and fast-food restaurant McDonald’s (MCD), with 6.57% and 5.48% of assets, respectively.

If a consumer discretionary fund that can potentially benefit during bull market conditions seems appealing, you may want to take a look at Consumer Discretionary Select Sector ETF (XLY). In this column next week, I’ll have another sector highlighted for your consideration.

View the current price, volume, performance and top 10 holdings of XLY at ETFU.com.

If you want my advice about buying and selling specific ETFs, including appropriate stop losses, please consider subscribing to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter.

As always, I am happy to answer any of your questions about ETFs, so do not hesitate to send me an e-mail. You just may see your question answered in a future ETF Talk.


12 Investments Still Offering Double-Digit Yields
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Six Questions to Ask Before You Buy Any ETF

I often am asked by readers, radio show listeners and clients about exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Why I like them so much, why they are better than mutual funds, why I prefer them to individual stocks, etc.

Today, I am going to provide a few questions for you, questions you should ask yourself before you buy any ETF.

Here is my list of the six key questions you must ask before you commit your investment capital to an exchange-traded fund.

1) Why am I buying? Do you need to generate growth from your assets, or is income more what you are looking for? Are you buying this ETF for a long-term hold, or do you plan on trading the fund? The first question of why you are buying is all about you and your goals, so the more defined your objectives are, the better your outcome is likely to be.

2) What asset class am I buying? Is this ETF an equity (stock) fund, or is it a bond fund? Is it pegged to a specific market sector, or is it an inverse fund? Knowing what you are buying is critical, so make sure you are fully aware of what’s in that ETF.

3) What index is my ETF following? Is your ETF exposed to the S&P 500? Is it pegged to the Dow? Or, is it pegged to the NASDAQ 100? All three funds of this sort are broad-based equity funds, but they are not created equal in terms of composition and diversification. Knowing how diversified you are in a fund is important, and you know that by knowing what index the ETF follows.

4) What’s the cost? How much is that ETF going to cost you? What is its “expense ratio?” If you don’t know how much you’re paying for something, you can’t make a good decision about value.

5) What’s the asset size and volume of this ETF? Are you buying an ETF with a lot of liquidity and a lot of trading volume? Or, are you looking at an ETF with little assets under management and one that trades low volume. The answer here can make a difference when it comes to efficient trade execution and fund pricing, so be aware of the size of the ETFs you want to buy.

6) What’s my exit point? Do you know when you’re going to sell this ETF? How much downside can you handle? When will you take your winnings off the table? Only you can answer these questions based on your personal investing situation, but answer them you must if you want to be an efficient, and successful, ETF investor.

Finally, recently subscribers to my Successful ETF Investing newsletter received the first new domestic equity buy signal in some time. If you want to find out what we’re buying, then I invite you to check out the newsletter today.

An ETF for the Next Cyber Attack

Cybersecurity is a serious problem.

From the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, to MIT, to American Airlines and Ashley Madison -- the cyber hits just keep rolling along and doing serious damage to the U.S. economy.

Over the past several years, the volume of high-profile attacks has sparked a massive demand for cyber defense.

What that means for you is the opportunity to profit from one of the most innovative ETFs to come to market over the past few years, the PureFunds ISE Cyber Security ETF (HACK).

HACK

I really believe in this fund, which is why I recently hosted a free online webinar featuring a panel of cybersecurity and investment experts from PureFunds.

Now, I am happy to tell you that a replay of that free webinar is available for viewing right now.

If you want to understand the cybersecurity boom and how to properly invest in this burgeoning area, this free webinar is a must.

I guarantee you’ll feel more secure knowing that some great companies are out there waging the cyber war against hackers, identity thieves and other nefarious sorts.

On Simplicity

“Simplicity is the glory of expression.”

-- Walt Whitman

When it comes to investing, there are a lot of complicated strategies that use all sorts of complex fundamental and technical metrics. Some of these will work some of the time, and some won’t work some of the time. Over my three-plus decades in this business, I’ve come to learn that in most cases, the simpler a strategy is, the more often it tends to work.

Wisdom about money, investing and life can be found anywhere. If you have a good quote you’d like me to share with your fellow readers, send it to me, along with any comments, questions and suggestions you have about my audio podcast, newsletters, seminars or anything else. Ask Doug.

In case you missed it, I encourage you to read my e-letter column from last week about what strong economic data could mean for the federal funds rate. I also invite you to comment in the space provided below my Eagle Daily Investor commentary.

All the best,
Doug Fabian
Doug Fabian
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