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The 10-Point: My Guide to the Day's Top News

The Wall Street Journal
Gerard Baker is away. Today’s 10-Point is by Deputy Editor in Chief Matt Murray. Follow him on Twitter @MurrayMatt.
Good morning,
Subsidized Jihad
Belgian financial investigators looking into recent terror plots have discovered a disturbing trend: Some of the suspects were collecting welfare benefits until shortly before they carried out their attacks. At least five of the alleged plotters in the Paris and Brussels terror attacks partly financed themselves with payments from Belgium’s generous social-welfare system. The main surviving Paris suspect collected unemployment benefits until three weeks before the November attacks, though he was employed and should have been ineligible. The revelations raise a difficult conundrum for Europe. On one hand, the modern welfare state is a primary tool for combating poverty as well as integrating immigrants. On the other, officials are working to stem terrorist financing. All of the Paris and Brussels terror suspects known to have received welfare were EU citizens.
Trump’s Trials
While Donald Trump showed signs that he is trying to get his campaign back on track amid a series of recent missteps, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found Hillary Clinton opening a 9-point lead nationally over the New York businessman. Mrs. Clinton’s lead, at 47% to 38%, grew from 5 percentage points before the conventions in July. Mr. Trump has solidified support among working-class, white voters, but he has been losing support among college-educated and suburban voters. The poll also found that Mrs. Clinton retained a 9-point lead when third-party candidates are included on the ballot. Meanwhile, we report that the Clinton camp is seeking to win over Republicans, while Republican vice presidential nominee Mike Pence said he stands by Mr. Trump despite “differences in style.”
Low Expectations
The all-important question of whether a company beat estimates may be more about theatrics than reality. We report that quarter after quarter, about 75% of companies in the S&P 500 index meet or exceed analysts’ earnings forecasts, a statistic that has held up in good times and bad. One reason for such consistently impressive results is that some companies quietly nudge analysts’ numbers, almost always lower. A federal rule bars companies from selectively disclosing material nonpublic information but doesn’t prohibit private conversations in which companies can gently push analysts in helpful directions, giving them and their investing clients a potentially unfair advantage. Our analysis of daily changes in analysts’ estimates at S&P 500 companies found that earnings estimates often decline steadily after the end of a quarter. That can turn what might have been an embarrassing “miss” for the company into a positive surprise.
Let the Games Begin
The Olympic motto is faster, higher, stronger. This year’s Games will also be clearer, bigger and closer. For the first time, viewers at home can go live with no more than a smartphone to every single event in every single sport—4,500 hours of Olympic drama. We present our complete guide for watching this year’s Games, including which athletes to follow on social media. Viewers may be in for some surprises when the first South American city ever to host the Olympics lights the torch at the opening ceremony Friday, before a VIP-studded crowd of 70,000. Expect a four-hour, multimedia spectacle displaying Brazil’s sweeping history and diversity. And to get a taste of what it takes to medal, check out our minigames designed to test your ability at core Olympic skills.
TODAY'S VIDEO
Home Sweet Home
That Was Painless
Developers across the U.S. are looking to an idealized past to create old-style communities—miniature villages with streets of historic-looking homes, porches, sidewalks, shared green spaces and cute shops.
TOP STORIES
U.S.

Business Groups Sue U.S. Government Over Tax-Inversion Rules

Home Prices in the Bay Area Push Builders, Buyers to More Distant Suburbs
WORLD

U.S. Not Persuaded to Extradite Imam Over Turkey Coup

A Chastened Brazil Welcomes Its Summer Games
BUSINESS

Toyota Revises Down Full-Year Earnings Projection

U.S. Tech Firms Dominate Cloud Services in Western Europe
MARKETS

Cash Flies Commercial and Other Secrets of Moving Money

Sterling Falls, Bonds Rise on BOE Rate Cut
NUMBER OF THE DAY
$13.33 billion
The upper limit of the amount of U.K. corporate debt the Bank of England said it will buy starting in September as part of a larger package of stimulus measures. Central banks have a new favorite tool for boosting lackluster growth: corporate-debt purchases.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
We do not pay ransom for hostages…We didn’t here, and we won’t in the future, precisely because if we did we’d start encouraging Americans to be targeted.
President Barack Obama on Thursday defended his decision to authorize a $400 million cash payment to Iran that coincided with the country’s release of American prisoners in January.
TODAY'S QUESTION
Going back to our story above, what are your thoughts on the latest WSJ/NBC News poll results? Send your comments, which we may edit before publication, to 10point@wsj.com. Please include your name and location.
—Compiled by Margaret Rawson
READER RESPONSE
Responding to yesterday’s question on Wal-Mart pursuing talks to acquire Jet.com, Hoagland of Virginia said: “I have had good dealings so far with Jet.com. I fear that if Wal-Mart acquires Jet, they will screw it up.” Slade Howell of North Carolina wrote: “Wal-Mart customers are a different breed compared to the online crowd attracted to the likes of Amazon. Wal-Mart would be better served spending to preserve their ‘brick and mortar’ base, rather than wandering into the wilderness of advanced cyberland. They could burn lots of cash buying nonprofitable start-ups and developing sophisticated computer systems that their customer base would never use and would never challenge the systems in place at Amazon.” And M.B. Nachman of California asked: “If Jet could not make a go of its business plan, what good will it do Wal-Mart?”
This daily briefing is named "The 10-Point" after the nickname conferred by the editors of The Wall Street Journal on the lead column of the legendary "What's News" digest of top stories. Technically, "10-point" referred to the size of the typeface. The type is smaller now but the name lives on.
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