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Equity Office Daily Brief: July 20, 2016

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Daily Brief

July 20, 2016

  EquilityOffice

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Current U.S. economic recovery may end up as longest ever

MarketWatch

 

The seven-year-old economic recovery in the U.S. is already the fourth longest since 1850, and the odds of the current expansion breaking the record is not so farfetched. The long road back from the Great Recession began in mid-2009 and July marks...

 


Self-Storage Sector Maintains Steady Growth

National Real Estate Investor

 

The self-storage industry is one that has not garnered much investor attention, but may start to, judging by the numbers. Vacancy rates continued to decline in the first quarter and rents climbed at a healthy rate. The self-storage industry, like all property...

 


California, ranked as least business-friendly state, blows past all others in job creation

Daily Breeze

 

If you think California is a tough place to do business, you’re not alone. A new report from CNBC confirms what scores of companies have long suspected — California is the least business-friendly state in the nation. CNBC’s 10th annual America’s Top States...

 



BLOG & ONLINE NEWS

 

LA Area O'Reilly Auto Parts Property Trades at 1.31% Cap Rate on In-Place Income

RENTV.com

 

A 23k sf retail property currently occupied by O’Reilly Auto Parts in the city of Bell sold for $4.58 mil, or around $200/sf. We’re told by our source that the deal represents a 1.31 percent cap rate on in-place income, placing...

 


Recent Signings Bring Diamond Bar Office Campus to 97% leased

RENTV.com

 

There have been three new lease signings to report at Gateway Corporate Center, a two-building, 162.3k sf office campus in the east San Gabriel Valley city of Diamond Bar. These latest leases include 5.8k sf by The Society of the Advancement...

 


Co-working company nabs 27K sf at ROW DTLA in Arts District

The Real Deal

 

DTLA’s co-working craze has claimed another office space. Shared workspace provider Real Office Centers has inked a 15-year lease for 27,000 square feet at ROW DTLA, located at 777 South Alameda Street in the Arts District, The Real Deal has learned. The location will be...

 


Modular Design Fits With Today's Offices

GlobeSt.com

 

SAN DIEGO—Modular design provides companies the ability to expand and contract with their business, including economic variables that affect their business, Ware Malcomb principal Tiffany English tells GlobeSt.com. The international design firm recently completed the first phase of construction on Cubic Corp.’s new office design at 9323 Balboa Ave. here, providing Cubic...

 


'Millennial dorms': A new kind of group living for urbanites

CNBC

 

Housed inside the 27-story WeWork (2016 CNBC Disruptor No. 34) building at 110 Wall Street in lower Manhattan is the latest iteration of the company's take on the "we" way of life: WeLive. Opened for about six months, the residential apartments...

 

FULL TEXT


Current U.S. economic recovery may end up as longest ever

MarketWatch

 

The seven-year-old economic recovery in the U.S. is already the fourth longest since 1850, and the odds of the current expansion breaking the record is not so farfetched.

The long road back from the Great Recession began in mid-2009 and July marks the 84th month of recovery. By next February the expansion is likely to move into third place. The expansion can break an all-time record of 120 months if the economy continues to chug along until June 2019 — three years from now.

What puts the record within reach is an ultra-cautious and highly accommodative Federal Reserve, says High Frequency Economics in a research paper.

Most modern recessions have been proceeded by a cycle of Fed Interest rate hikes that make loans — car loans, mortgages, corporate credit — more costly to obtain. During the current recovery the central bank has kept its benchmark short-term interest rate near zero almost the entire time.

The Fed did raise rates for the first time in nine years in December, but only by a quarter of a percentage point. It’s held off raising rates again so far this year because of fresh worries about the health of the labor market, the broader U.S. economy and unsettling developments overseas such as the U.K. vote to exit the European Union. Money is still dirt cheap.

The Fed’s reluctance to raise rates, however, could actually be a trigger for a recession if it turns out the central bank was too cautious, notes Jim O’Sullivan, HFE chief U.S. economist. The bank might have to raise rates more quickly than it expected if the economy overheats and inflation surges.

“Fed tightening is more likely to trigger a recession if it is rapid rather than gradual, and it could end up being rapid if officials are forced into catchup mode after procrastinating,” he wrote.

Some economists already think the Fed has fallen behind the curve. In every other recovery, the central bank would have raised rates several times by now.

How to explain the Fed’s reluctance? For one thing, central bankers are worried about the fragile nature of the recovery — It’s the slowest since World War Two.

The U.S. has grown an average of 2.1% a year since mid-2009. By contrast, the economy grew an average of 3.6% annually during the 1991-2001 expansion — the longest for which records exist. The weak recovery helps explain why so many Americans are still worried about the economy.

Central bankers, for their part, also appear to think the U.S. is more susceptible to recessions caused by shocks that the economy was able to handle in the past.

“That logic has made Fed officials especially sensitive — too sensitive? — to ‘global economic and financial developments,’ ” O’Sullivan said.

In other words, the current U.S. expansion may have lasted a surprisingly long time, but it’s been a disappointingly slow one and more vulnerable than in past business cycles. It’s hard to get all exited about that.

-Jeffry Bartash

Self-Storage Sector Maintains Steady Growth

National Real Estate Investor

 

The self-storage industry is one that has not garnered much investor attention, but may start to, judging by the numbers. Vacancy rates continued to decline in the first quarter and rents climbed at a healthy rate.

The self-storage industry, like all property sectors, has a number of idiosyncrasies, including unit type. Most self-storage facilities rent units of many different sizes, from 5 ft. by 5 ft. to 10 ft. x 20 ft. and everything in between. Statistics are collected for five standard unit-size categories, and because every building has a different combination of unit types, rents are generally reported for the mid-sized category of 10 ft. x 10 ft. in order to ensure an apples-to-apples comparison for buildings, sub-markets and metros.

Moreover, most properties rent units that are climate-controlled, as well as those that are not. Accordingly, rents for climate-controlled units are higher than non-climate controlled units. These rents are reported separately, but they are not aggregated or averaged as the statistics on the physical space (net absorption, construction and vacancy rates) are.

Another idiosyncrasy is the seasonality of self-storage leasing. The chart below shows the steady decline in the national vacancy rate, but the quarterly statistics also clearly show how regularly vacancies decline in the second quarter of every year before climbing in the third and fourth quarters and holding steady in the first. Much of the drop is due to student turnover at the end of the school year. Also, the spring and early summer months are periods that see the highest volume of households moving. The vacancy rate for the first quarter of 2016, at 11.0 percent, is higher than that for the second quarter of 2015, but lower than every other first quarter over the last four years. The same data shows that occupancy has grown by 11.0 percent since the first quarter of 2012.

Likewise, annual rent growth has been healthy, for non-climate controlled units more so than climate-controlled units. The table below shows annual rent growth for self-storage facilities for the two categories compared to other property types. The first quarter 2016 data shows that non-climate controlled properties saw rent growth of 3.9 percent, ahead of every other property type except apartments.

The national statistics are aggregated for the 50 self-storage markets that Reis tracks. By region, the Northeast is the more expensive self-storage market as shown in the charts below.

Looking at rent growth, however, the South Atlantic saw higher rent growth for climate-controlled units, while the West outperformed the other regions for non-climate controlled units.

The good news is that developers have been slow to “grow” self-storage space: inventory growth had been below 1.0 percent per year from 2012 through 2015 while occupancy growth stayed well above 2.0 percent for those years. Although occupancy growth has been steady, inventory growth is expected to increase by 1.7 percent in 2016.

Still, demand is expected to hold steady as users grow accustomed to storing their goods. The growth of this property type coincided with the growth in apartment occupancy. As more people opted to live in apartments, they gave up the luxury of garage, attic and basement space for storage. As the economy improved, consumers likely spent more on acquisitions without the means to store them. This trend will likely continue as apartment net absorption grows, but apartment net absorption is expected to decelerate somewhat going forward, which could slow the growth in self-storage occupancy.  Likewise, as apartment rents are expected to grow at a decelerating pace, self-storage rents are expected to decelerate as well, but still remain positive.

-Barbara Byrne Denham and Victor Calanog

California, ranked as least business-friendly state, blows past all others in job creation

Daily Breeze

 

If you think California is a tough place to do business, you’re not alone.

A new report from CNBC confirms what scores of companies have long suspected — California is the least business-friendly state in the nation.

CNBC’s 10th annual America’s Top States for Business study places the Golden State at the bottom of the list for 2016. California was also found to be one of the costliest places to do business, with a favorability ranking of 49 out of 50.

Those figures don’t surprise Clay Harrison, co-owner of Vidcam, a Burbank business that rents cameras, lighting and audio equipment to the TV industry.

“The thing that bothers me the most are the local taxes,” he said. “If you buy equipment here in L.A. County they want money. If you buy it from outside the state they want money. And you have to fill out form after form to do business here. The city also has a gross receipts tax but they’re not giving you anything in return. All of this makes it hard to do your record keeping when you have a small business.”

California’s educational system also ranked low on the scale, landing at 38, and the state’s network of roads and bridges, waterways, rail lines and other infrastructure was ranked the 33rd worst in the nation.

Still, California was rated second in technology and second in easy access to capital. The state’s overall economy was likewise deemed the eighth healthiest in the nation.

Larry Mandell, a principal with Training Refund Group, said his company is one of the bright spots in California’s otherwise difficult business climate. His Anaheim-based business helps companies secure funding for employee training through the California Employment Training Panel. The money comes from an employment training tax of $7 per employee, per year that is paid by employers.

“There are some programs out there that are pro-business and this is one of them,” he said. “California companies are at a disadvantage because of our schools and educational system. People are coming into the workplace who don’t have the skills necessary to really compete. The biggest benefit from our program is that people get the skills training they didn’t receive in school.”

The CNBC report also provides cumulative rankings for how each state did over the past decade. By that measure, California ranked 36th out of the nation’s 50 states. Texas topped the list at No. 1, followed by Virginia, Utah, Colorado and North Carolina.

Hawaii landed at the bottom of the cumulative ratings, although it snagged the top spot this year in the Quality of Life category.

Economist Christopher Thornberg, a founding partner with Beacon Economics, noted last week that California’s reputation for being unfriendly to businesses hasn’t slowed the state’s forward momentum — particularly in job creation.

“You could argue that just in the last four months we have finally erased the last residuals of the Great Recession out of the labor market,” he said. “And of course California, once written off as a disaster of business unfriendliness, is continuing to lead the nation in terms of economic growth.”

Figures show California added nearly 447,000 new jobs last year, more than Texas and Florida combined.

Kim Victorine, director of operations for Plastics Plus Technology in Redlands, agreed that California’s tax climate and labor costs — including workers compensation, medical insurance and related expenses — make it difficult to do business here.

But for Plastics Plus, he said, it makes sense to stay.

“We make a slew of different medical parts that are used in hospitals and emergency rooms and we ship a lot of products to L.A. County, San Diego County and to Mexico,” he said. “We have lower shipping costs by being where we are, and we make deliveries in our own trucks.”

-Kevin Smith

LA Area O'Reilly Auto Parts Property Trades at 1.31% Cap Rate on In-Place Income

RENTV.com

 

A 23k sf retail property currently occupied by O’Reilly Auto Parts in the city of Bell sold for $4.58 mil, or around $200/sf. We’re told by our source that the deal represents a 1.31 percent cap rate on in-place income, placing it among the lowest cap rates for a single-tenant net lease retail property for 2016 in infill Los Angeles. The property, located at 7019 Atlantic Ave, west of the 710 Fwy and north of Florence Ave, is 100 percent leased to and guaranteed by Kroger Cooperation and subleased to O’Reilly Auto Parts. O’Reilly operates as a “hub” store at this location, serving as a strategic distribution point for several other locations in the trade area. The master lease with Kroger expires January 2023 Arthur Flores of CBRE represented the buyer, CA Plaza LLC, and the unnamed seller in this transaction. “The acquisition of the O’Reilly Auto Parts property presented an uncommon opportunity for a value-focused investor to purchase an existing, single-tenant net lease retail site, with in-place cash flow,” said Flores. The buyer, who acquired the asset as part of a 1031-exchange, will also likely benefit from the expiration of the existing lease, which is well below market rental rates. The deal generated seven offers in only three weeks, according to Flores. The chosen buyer released a nonrefundable deposit within three days of the opening of escrow and closed the transaction in four days at one of the lowest cap rates on record.

-Staff

Recent Signings Bring Diamond Bar Office Campus to 97% leased

RENTV.com

 

There have been three new lease signings to report at Gateway Corporate Center, a two-building, 162.3k sf office campus in the east San Gabriel Valley city of Diamond Bar. These latest leases include 5.8k sf by The Society of the Advancement of Material, 6.6k sf by Zenlayer Technologies Inc and 1.3k sf by Sino-Global Shipping LA Inc. Built in 2000, Gateway Corporate Center is a Class A complex located at 216680 and 21688 Gateway Center Dr, adjacent to the confluence of CA Highways 57 and 60. The property is owned by Buchanan Street Partners, who acquired it from Cornerstone Real Estate Advisors in January 2016. The twin building complex is 97% leased with multiple credit tenants, including Travelers Insurance and Well Fargo Bank. The property offers a 5.3/1,000 parking ratio, and features scenic views and a strategic location within a 255-acre, master-planned corporate environment. All parties in these latest transactions were represented by Cushman & Wakefield. Accoridng to C&W, asking lease rates are at an eight-year high for the San Gabriel Valley.

-Staff

Co-working company nabs 27K sf at ROW DTLA in Arts District

The Real Deal

 

DTLA’s co-working craze has claimed another office space.

Shared workspace provider Real Office Centers has inked a 15-year lease for 27,000 square feet at ROW DTLA, located at 777 South Alameda Street in the Arts District, The Real Deal has learned.

The location will be ROC’s first in Downtown Los Angeles. The company has several others in Santa Monica, San Diego, Orange County, and Honolulu.

ROC was represented by Jim Travers and Chris O’Connor of Cresa, while the ownership was represented by Andrew Jennison, Jim Jacobsen, Carl Pierose and Scott Rigsby of Industry Partners.

ROW, developed by Atlas Capital Group and Square Mile Capital Management in partnership with USAA Real Estate Company, is currently the largest adaptive re-use project in Los Angeles and comprises the transformation of six structures originally built by the Southern Pacific Railroad in the 1920s into loft-style workspaces. Asking rents at the complex were not immediately available.

The project also includes a massive retail component. Furnishings store A+R is slated to open there in the fall. Brooklyn-based Smorgasburg  opened a weekly Sunday mega-market for food last month, to much fanfare.

“ROC’s decision to open at ROW DTLA underscores the continued expansion of L.A.’s creative workforce to Downtown L.A. and the Eastside,” Jennison said.

Increased demand for office space from creative and co-working tenants such as WeWork, Industrious and ROC has been driving down office vacancy in DTLA, TRD previously reported.

“Though many market observers and participants tend to hold overly bullish or overly bearish opinions about the concept of co-working, the one undeniable truth is that co-working companies are accounting for an ever-increasing chunk of net absorption and nowhere is this more true than in Downtown Los Angeles,” said an April report by CBRE.

-Katherine Clark

Modular Design Fits With Today's Offices

GlobeSt.com

 

SAN DIEGO—Modular design provides companies the ability to expand and contract with their business, including economic variables that affect their business, Ware Malcomb principal Tiffany English tells GlobeSt.com. The international design firm recently completed the first phase of construction on Cubic Corp.’s new office design at 9323 Balboa Ave. here, providing Cubic with interior architecture and design, branding, and strategic workplace planning services. This project is the first in a series of undertakings to renovate the Cubic campus and serves as a prototype for future projects.

Ware Malcomb transformed the 13,000-square-foot office space and created a new modular interior workplace standard for Cubic to accommodate the continuously changing needs of the company’s engineering teams. The flexible standards development included suite and departmental entries; branding and way finding; meeting, amenity and ancillary spaces; work stations; and private offices. Many of these spaces were designed and sized based on a modular footprint, allowing the areas to expand and contract based on need.

We spoke exclusively with English about modular design and how it works for today’s office users.

GlobeSt.com: How is modular design as a concept developing in commercial real estate construction and redevelopment?

English: Commercial real estate construction and redevelopment have moved in the direction of flexibility and efficiency. Modular design provides companies the ability to expand and contract with their business, including economic variables that affect their business.

English: Today’s multi-generational work force encompasses different perspectives on how and where work is done. Providing environments that cater to diverse demographics is valued by companies and encourages cross-pollination and innovation.

GlobeSt.com: What do you see as the next steps for the modular-design concept? 

English: Modular design will continue to be fluid and evolve in unison with the changing work force. This concept allows companies to grow and change organically in alignment with their business goals. A flexible and modular environment encourages energy and innovation.

GlobeSt.com: What else should our readers know about modular design? 

English: Modular design is not a one-size-fits-all solution. The understanding of an organization’s specific business goals, work force and future growth plans is key. Taking these factors into account, modular design can provide a unique, branded environment that resonates with a firm’s culture, employees and clients.

-Carrie Rossenfeld

'Millennial dorms': A new kind of group living for urbanites

CNBC

 

Housed inside the 27-story WeWork (2016 CNBC Disruptor No. 34) building at 110 Wall Street in lower Manhattan is the latest iteration of the company's take on the "we" way of life: WeLive. Opened for about six months, the residential apartments pick up where WeWork leaves off, quite literally.

On floors 2 through 6 of the building are WeWork shared office spaces. Right above, on floors 7 through 18, you'll find the WeLive apartments (floors 19 through 27 are scheduled to be complete by Aug. 1).

A second WeWork/WeLive mixed-use building is located in Crystal City, Virginia, with the 260 residential units having opened May 1. Though WeWork claims to be testing its co-living concept with these two inaugural buildings, the company is hardly standing still. Deals for new locations in New York City, London, San Francisco and Los Angeles are reportedly already being negotiated.

In fact, WeWork co-founder and chief creative officer Miguel McKelvey says the market for its shared-living residences is potentially bigger than that for its co-working spaces, which currently number 75 locations in 22 cities around the world and 55,000 members.

The WeLive apartments in New York City range from studios to four-bedroom units that can accommodate up to eight people. A private bedroom in a shared apartment starts at about $1,700 a month; a private studio runs around $2,700 a month. The rents aren't super-cheap — nor does the company promote them that way — but they typically cost less than other buildings in the neighborhood.

On the day we interviewed co-founder McKelvey at 110 Wall Street, we sat at a giant farm table in the spacious and well-appointed communal kitchen on the seventh floor. Residents shuffled in and out — some grabbing free coffee and juice, some lounging around on their phones or watching movies on their laptops. Other common areas in the building include a huge laundry room tricked out with video games and a pool table.

A community manager (not unlike a college RA) helps to organize Sunday night dinners, game nights and karaoke — all designed to bring residents together and promote the belief that gathering and sharing is a better way to co-exist with your neighbors.

And therein lies the secret ingredient for WeWork. It's not that shared office space or co-living arrangements are original ideas. Publicly traded Regus has been leasing out individual tech-powered offices for more than two decades and is currently operating 2,300 business centers across 120 countries. And similar co-living start-ups, such as Common in Brooklyn, and Roam, with locations all over the world, have been around a bit longer than WeLive.

What parent company WeWork does is take these basic concepts and repackage them with the community element baked right in. You don't just live in a WeLive apartment; you share, interact, collaborate and commiserate with your fellow residents.

A living community

McKelvey, 41, a tall, bearded man who grew up in a collective in Oregon with his mom and four other families, claims the idea for WeLive was actually present from the company's earliest days. "When Adam and I started WeWork in 2010, the 'we' part of the equation was the most important thing to us," he says. "We just found it easier to start with office space. But the idea of doing something together, of being in something together with other people, is really, really powerful."

Or really annoying, depending on your point of view. There are those who have no interest in sharing office space with strangers or bumping up against neighbors in a community kitchen first thing in the morning. But for plenty of other folks — mainly those in their 20s and 30s — the camaraderie and give-and-take that comes from being around other people who are trying to start (or restart) their lives and careers can be a welcome offering.

In fact, according to Anita Shannon, the 23-year-old community manager at 110 Wall Street, the apartments that are open are fully leased, and the units opening in August are nearly all taken. What these folks are willing to give up in privacy they get back in the form of a ready-made social network.

Just listen to John Shi, a 26-year-old Dartmouth graduate who started a sports apparel company called Hillflint two years ago. In June he moved his three-person start-up from his hometown of San Francisco to New York City and leased a four-desk WeWork office suite on the fourth floor of 110 Wall Street. A few weeks later he moved into a WeLive studio apartment a few floors above.

"I like the camraderie and the fact that there are other people to talk to in the kitchen or laundry room," he says. "New York can be kind of isolating because everyone works really hard and long hours, but here you're around other people going through the same thing."

As for the criticism that the apartments are nothing more than grown-up dorms, Shi says, "people have jobs and professional goals here. That's not what you find in a dorm."

The company charges residents a $125 monthly fee that covers cable, internet, fitness classes in a large all-purpose space that also doubles as a screening room, and a monthly cleaning service. All apartments have private kitchens and at least one bathroom and come furnished. Included as well: sheets, towels, dishes and even bathroom toiletries. They can be rented for as long or as short as needed.

Though they've only been on the market for a short time, some critics have already dubbed WeLive apartments simply "dorms for millennials." The atmosphere certainly does conjure up a certain college vibe.

As the next step in the company's "we" franchise, WeLive can naturally tap into the same big-name developers that partner with WeWork. For instance, the 110 Wall Street location is owned by Rudin Management, the prestigious century-old real estate development firm. The office building had been around since the early 1960s but was badly damaged during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. CEO William Rudin says his company briefly considered tearing it down. But a few weeks after the storm, he met there with WeWork co-founder Adam Neumann.

"We're walking through the building with flashlights because all the power was still out, and Neumann says, 'I have an idea,'" Rudin recalls. Three days later he proposed the first mixed-use WeWork/WeLive concept and the building's redesign was under way. Rudin Management supplied the money — a reported $60 million — to "Sandy-proof" the building by moving all the essential mechanical and electrical components from the basement to the 12th floor and to do the build-out of the new WeLive residential space. Rudin still owns the building, with WeLive taking a 30-year lease.

"There was a big question about whether downtown Manhattan was ever going to bounce back after Sandy," Rudin says. "But we decided to go ahead with the renovation in part because of Adam's and Miguel's vision and their sense of community. This deal has already paid dividends for us."

Making connections

Though WeLive is in its earliest stage, McKelvey says the company can easily see a time when WeLive buildings include features and amenities that cater to demographics beyond millennials, such as families with young children and older adults.

He also believes that the addressable market — people looking for living space in urban areas — is bigger than the market for office space. In fact, in documents prepared for investors not long ago, the company projects that revenue from WeLive apartments would ramp up to nearly a quarter of the company's total within the next two years.

"Look, I'm 41 with a six-year-old son," McKelvey says, "and even though I live in a building with a million kids, he doesn't have one friend there because there's no context for making that happen. I think there's a huge market for a connected building where I could broadcast to other parents that I want to set up a playdate for my child."

McKelvey believes the same dynamic exists at the other end of the spectrum, where older folks would welcome a chance to live among, and interact with, young families or those in their 30s and 40s.

Says he: "If you can figure out a way for people at all different stages of life to believe that they're all meaningful to each other, then yes, WeLive can work anywhere."

-Susan Caminiti

Daily Brief July 20, 2016 unsubscribe

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