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Equity Office Daily Brief: February 1, 2017

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Daily Brief

February 01, 2017

  EquilityOffice

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Trump Immigration Order Unlikely to Affect Tech Hiring

The Wall Street Journal

 

President Donald Trump’s executive order restricting immigration from seven Muslim-majority countries won’t lead to significant changes in IT hiring practices among U.S. companies since they hire relatively few technology professionals from those countries, executives and analysts said Monday. The seven countries affected...

 


Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen bringing hip London club to Hollywood and Vine

Los Angeles Times

 

When Paul Allen paid $41 million for the Redbury Hotel in Hollywood last June, people wondered what he was up to.  The co-founder of Microsoft is not known as a hotelier. Allen’s plan is now clear — the Redbury will be turned into a...

 


Avison Young Adds Three Brokers

San Fernando Valley Business Journal

 

Real estate brokerage Avison Young has hired three new brokers for its Los Angeles North office. Chris Baer, Brian Hennessey and Armand Aghadjanians will work at the office in Toluca Lake. Effective immediately, Baer will become a principal with a mandate to expand...

 



BLOG & ONLINE NEWS

 

Foreign Capital Continues to Flood into L.A.

GlobeSt.com

 

Over the last five years, foreign investors have invested more than $9.7 billion in Los Angeles office properties, with the funds concentrated downtown and on the Westside, according to research from JLL. The capital has been flooding in from Asia as...

 


Middle Market Digest: Southwest

GlobeSt.com

 

LOS ANGELES— Our bi-weekly update on the middle markets throughout the Southwest region. Here’s a look at the latest news, announcements and deals that you may have missed in Southern California, Nevada, Arizona and Utah. NEW & NOTABLE IRVINE, CA—Passco Companies has announced...

 


Developers Are Connecting Over Smart Technology

GlobeSt.com

 

In the near future, all of our living spaces—home, work, hotel—will be able to communicate. Commercial real estate owners and developers are looking at ways to connect property types through smart technology. For now, this is still a concept, but the...

 


Office construction boom predicted for 2017

Curbed

 

It’s barely February, but analysts are already predicting a bumper crop of office construction in the U.S. this year. Researchers from Dodge Data & Analytics anticipate a 10 percent increase in office construction starts—and 10 million more square feet—over 2016. Meanwhile, the chief...

 


Here's a glimpse at the renovations underway at the old L.A. Herald-Examiner building

Curbed LA

 

Curbed got a look at some of the work being done to renovate the long-empty Los Angeles Herald-Examiner building, designed by Hearst Castle architect Julia Morgan, in south Downtown Los Angeles. Crews have already removed cement that blocked two of the building's...

 


Latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson forecast commercial real estate survey results reveal positive outlook for California

Bisnow

 

There has been no significant shift in the economy related to the election results and the commercial real estate cycle has continued to run its regular course, according to the Winter/Spring 2017 Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast released today.“While the outlook for...

 

FULL TEXT


Trump Immigration Order Unlikely to Affect Tech Hiring

The Wall Street Journal

 

President Donald Trump’s executive order restricting immigration from seven Muslim-majority countries won’t lead to significant changes in IT hiring practices among U.S. companies since they hire relatively few technology professionals from those countries, executives and analysts said Monday.

The seven countries affected by the travel ban — Iraq, Iran, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Libya and Yemen — are not the primary sources of foreign talent for U.S companies, said Steve Odland, president and chief executive of the bipartisan public policy organization Committee for Economic Development and former CEO of Office Depot Inc. and AutoZone Inc. The economic development committee is part of The Conference Board.

Dustin Burgess, VP of strategy, analytics and metrics at talent management firm PRO Unlimited echoed the sentiment, and said he had not seen much concern among corporate executives regarding hiring following the order.

Where companies do have individual employees whose travel may be risky, executives should consult with the State Department and Homeland Security to work through potential problems, Mr. Odland said. “Companies need to provide legal support or whatever they can to take care of their people,” he said.

Eddy Wagoner, global CIO for corporate solutions at real estate firm JLL, said in an email that the company was ensuring employees are aware of the travel guidelines and addressing specific circumstances individually.

Beyond the travel ban, broader moves to restrict the H-1B visa program used to send skilled foreign workers to the U.S. could dent U.S. productivity given a shortage of high-skilled tech workers in the U.S.,  said Gerhard Karba, CTO of New York’s Hudson Yards project for real estate developer Related Cos. He added that Silicon Valley IT shops and big global companies may feel the impact most, while smaller firms or those that don’t hire using H-1B are unlikely to change their recruiting practices.

Since most workers come from civil service, the City of Los Angeles doesn’t tend to hire employees with H-1B visas. But some of its third-party contractors rely heavily on the visa program, meaning significant policy shifts could affect those partnerships.

“It creates ripples, so then perception influences certain policies and actions,” City of Los Angeles CIO Ted Ross said.

The contractors he works with “are all figuring it out, and it’s all moving very quickly,” he said. No one he’s spoken to yet knows what the ultimate impact will be, and Mr. Ross’ team hasn’t made any changes to existing policies.

Tighter restrictions on skilled worker visas to the U.S. could come via both executive action by President Trump and via Congressional moves, White House press secretary Sean Spicer said Monday. While a significant shakeup of the program would likely need to be approved by Congress, Mr. Trump could use an executive directive to take stakes such as ending a provision that allows spouses of H-1B holders to work in the U.S.

“With respect to H-1Bs and other visas, it’s part of a larger immigration reform effort that the president will continue to talk about through executive order and through working with Congress,” Mr. Spicer said.

-Steven Norton

Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen bringing hip London club to Hollywood and Vine

Los Angeles Times

 

When Paul Allen paid $41 million for the Redbury Hotel in Hollywood last June, people wondered what he was up to.  The co-founder of Microsoft is not known as a hotelier.

Allen’s plan is now clear — the Redbury will be turned into a club for entrepreneurs similar to a co-working venue, but turned up to 11 with such Hollywood touches as a recording studio, swimming pool and live performance stage.

After a makeover valued at more than $10 million, the hotel building will reopen in April 2018 as the first U.S. outpost of Allen’s Hospital Club, a popular locale in London for people in creative fields to hang out, work or make things together.

The original club was opened in 2004 by Allen and English musician Dave Stewart in a derelict 18th-century hospital building in London’s Covent Garden district.  After a search in the U.S., Allen decided to expand near the storied intersection of Hollywood and Vine.

“L.A.’s position as a hub of art, culture and creativity makes it the ideal location for the h.Club’s first global extension,” Allen said in a statement.

Members of the Hollywood version at 1717 Vine St. will be able to use the club as a substitute for an office, but it will more broadly be a place for entrepreneurial people in different fields to connect and collaborate, said Sue Walter, chief executive of Hospital Club.

The Los Angeles Club will have lounges, a screening room, a recording studio and a performance space intended for musical acts, theater pieces, comedy, magic and opera, Walter said. Artworks by members will be displayed.

There will be three dining areas including a rooftop restaurant that leads into a desert garden inspired by the English gardens of the late filmmaker Derek Jarman. Cleo, an existing restaurant, will continue to operate independently on the ground floor. There will be a swimming pool and a gym.

The 57-room Redbury Hotel will close in July. When the property reopens next year after the conversion it will have 36 rooms available for rent to the public. Overnight guests will granted temporary membership in the club, Walter said. 

The London club has more than 4,000 members, she said. She hopes that the Hollywood club will have 1,500 members when it opens in 2018 and grow to 5,000 members over the next six years. Annual fees in Hollywood are set at $1,200 now but are expected to double with the passage of time, she said. Members under the age of 30 pay half price.   

“We want to support young, emerging creatives,” she said.

Hospital Club picked the Hollywood and Vine location in part because it is close to major studios and near entertainment-related firms such as Netflix, Viacom and Live Nation.  

“Big names are moving into the area,” Walter said. “I have been astonished by the level of development. It’s like it’s on the cusp of something exciting that is about to explode and we want to be part of that.”

The h.Club will join several other co-working offices that have sprung up across Los Angeles County in recent years as a growing number of young entrepreneurs choose to share workspaces and support facilities with people who are not business colleagues. Most activity takes place in common spaces, not individual offices as was common with shared facilities in the past.

“It’s taken the executive suites concept to a whole new level,” real estate broker Chris Sinfield of Cushman & Wakefield said of co-working offices.  “They’re very hip, very modern and very collaborative as well, so it’s an exciting place to work.”

NeueHouse, a shared work facility and social club that opened in 2015 in the historic former CBS Radio Building on Sunset Boulevard, will compete with h.Club for Hollywood’s roving creative class.

Brokerage CBRE Group estimates that there are now about 2.5 million square feet of co-working  facilities in L.A. County. One of the largest companies serving entrepreneurs, freelancers and start-ups is WeWork, which has offices in a dozen Los Angeles-area locations including Hollywood.

Some co-working businesses such WeWork offer members designated desks or even offices if they don’t want to roam. H.Club’s plans so far call for communal workspaces only.

Co-working rents can be less than a typical office lease because less direct space is needed, conference rooms can be shared and amenities and furnishing are typically packaged into the price. Operators, meanwhile, can turn a profit because they charge more on a per-square-foot basis than the market rate by having multiple tenants sharing the same location.

“Done right, the co-working facility is an exiting place to work,” Sinfield said. “It has an edge to it, and you don’t have to spend a tremendous amount of capital to set up.”

-Roger Vincent

Avison Young Adds Three Brokers

San Fernando Valley Business Journal

 

Real estate brokerage Avison Young has hired three new brokers for its Los Angeles North office.

Chris Baer, Brian Hennessey and Armand Aghadjanians will work at the office in Toluca Lake.

Effective immediately, Baer will become a principal with a mandate to expand leasing and office investment in the Tri-Cities and San Fernando Valley. Baer rejoins Avison Young following a four-year tenure with Colliers International in Los Angeles

Hennessey joins Avison Young as a senior vice-president. He was most recently a senior vice-president at Colliers International specializing in office sales and leasing with a focus on the West San Fernando Valley and Tri-Cities markets.

Aghadjanians, also from Colliers, will become an associate at Avison Young.

Although the three men worked at the same company, they made the job transition as individuals, not as a team.

“We are thrilled to welcome Chris back to Avison Young and to bring Brian and Armand on board,” Mark Evanoff, managing director of the Los Angeles North office, said in a statement. “The addition of all three members to the Avison Young team shows our firm’s continued commitment to client service through superior expertise. Their deep market knowledge of the Tri-cities and San Fernando Valley areas will be a tremendous complement to Avison Young’s service offerings in our rapidly growing region.”

-Joel Russell

Foreign Capital Continues to Flood into L.A.

GlobeSt.com

 

Over the last five years, foreign investors have invested more than $9.7 billion in Los Angeles office properties, with the funds concentrated downtown and on the Westside, according to research from JLL. The capital has been flooding in from Asia as well as Canada, Europe and the Middle East. This year, experts don’t expect the demand from abroad to wan as the US economy strengthens and opportunities remain available.

“This capital is attracted to the strong and diversified US Economy,” Tom Bohlinger, EVP at JLL, tells GlobeSt.com. “L.A. is a top gateway market that benefits from very strong drivers in tech and entertainment, and yet is also extremely well diversified. Los Angeles is still in the expansion phase with room to run, and values are very attractive in relationship to other gateway markets. In fact, in 2016, Los Angeles saw a 60% increase in international capital making it the 4th largest recipient of cross boarder investment in the world.”

Canada actually invested the majority in Los Angeles real estate over the five-year span, spending $3.4 million on office properties. Hong Kong came in second with $2.4 million, followed by Qatar and Germany. These investors are seeking out specific markets. While investments were made throughout the Los Angeles market, $5.3 million went to Westside deals, while $3 million went to the Downtown Los Angeles market.

Bohlinger says that these investors are seeking diversity and capital preservation. Canada is driven to the market by consolidation of pension funds and positive FIRPTA changes, while Asia, primarily Hong Kong, is driven by the diversification and the security of the US economy and strength of the dollar. We expect China to remain one of the largest mover of capital for years to come,” he says. “Europe, primarily Germany driven by diversification, the strength of the dollar and the security of Gateway Cities, and the Middle East is also showing increased interest in the US for diversification out of Europe and yield.”

This activity is expected to continue through 2017. “We see continuing interest from Canada, the Middle East, Asia and Europe as they execute their mandates for diversification and investing in strong economies,” says Bohlinger. “This trend should continue if the product is available.”

-Kelsi Mareee Borland

Middle Market Digest: Southwest

GlobeSt.com

 

LOS ANGELES— Our bi-weekly update on the middle markets throughout the Southwest region. Here’s a look at the latest news, announcements and deals that you may have missed in Southern California, Nevada, Arizona and Utah.

NEW & NOTABLE

IRVINE, CA—Passco Companies has announced the promotions of Alan Clifton to COO and Suzy Cottle to CFO. The promotions come as a result of the company’s plan to acquire more than $1 billion in commercial real estate this year. In his new position, Clifton will negotiate and secure financing for new acquisitions as well as maturing asset loans, and oversee company operations, Passco Property Management and Passco Management Services. Clifton will continue his role within Passco Companies Development. In her new role, Cottle, who has been with Passco since 2004, will be responsible for overseeing all financial reporting, risk management and strategic banking relationships for Passco Companies and its affiliates.

LOS ANGELES—Arup has hired Katherine Perez-Estolano to its L.A. office as Cities Leader, with a focus on expanding our relationships with cities in Southern California. Katherine has a strong background in community development, real estate and infrastructure development, transportation policy, and urban planning. In her new role, Katherine will implement Arup’s Americas Cities Strategy, build on existing planning capabilities, and establish a transaction advice team in the Los Angeles region.

LOS ANGELES—JLL has hired Rob Perez as managing director of Healthcare Solutions in the West Region. In this role, Perez will lead regional healthcare development activities, helping hospitals and health systems enhance the patient experience, improve clinical outcomes and drive financial performance through real estate and facilities solutions. Perez brings more than three decades of experience in healthcare business development, public and private accounting and sales. Based in Los Angeles, Calif., he will concentrate on an area covering Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

DEALTRACKER

IRVINE, CA—Kelemen Caamano Investments has acquired four multi-tenant low-rise office buildings in Irvine for $27 million from CIP Real Estate. The buildings are located at the corner of Jamboree Blvd. and MacArthur Blvd. and were acquired as part of a 1031 exchange. The four buildings are part of the high-profile 13.55-acre, eight-building Centerpointe office campus. The properties are 100% occupied with tenants that include University of California, Irvine, SGS&B Law, and Elite Education, among others. The four buildings total 105,295 square feet of space and are situated on three separate parcels of land. The mix of one, two and three-story office buildings have been professionally maintained and offer high-quality interior and exterior improvements. Wind Water Realty represented the buyer, while Newmark Grubb Knight Frank executive managing director of investment services Robert Griffith along with Brian Garbutt of Lee & Associates.

LOS ANGELES—Winright Investments has acquired two adjacent retail centers in Torrance, California for $14.5 million. The Torrance Western Shopping Center, located at 1820-1842 West 182nd Street, is a stable, Southern California shopping center with strong anchors and a diverse tenant mix. The center is 30,279 square feet and anchored by retailer, 99 Cents Only, a top performing chain at this location. The shopping center was recently improved with a parking lot re-paving and updating of the exteriors. The second property, Sansei Shopping Center, is located at 18203 South Western Avenue and is a brand new retail strip center located in the heart of Torrance. Tenants include 7-Eleven and Shin Sen Gumi, a successful traditional Japanese restaurant that will be opening their first drive-thru store at this location. The property was still under construction and had two vacancies at the time of sale. CBRE’s Alex Kozakov, Patrick Wade and Eric Roy represented the sellers, a partnership between JSGT Fund LLC and Torrance RF, LLC. Realty Advisory Group represented the buyer in this transaction.PROVO, UT—Marcus & Millichap has arranged the sale of Pacific Heights Apartments, a 336-bed, 71-unit student housing property in Provo, Utah. The sale is part of a two-property student-housing portfolio in Provo that includes a second asset of more than 100 beds, which is expected to close in February 2017. Zylstra, and Danny Shin, vice president investments, represented the seller, a local development group based in Alpine, Utah, and procured the buyer, College Place Partners. Based in Dallas, College Place Partners owns student housing in markets across the country. Built in 2015, Pacific Heights Apartments is located at 743 N 900 E in Provo, less than a mile from the BYU campus and less than six miles from Utah Valley University. The property features three-to-six-bedroom units that range in size from 1,000 square feet to 1,700 square feet. Each unit is fully furnished and contains a full kitchen and a flat-screen television. All private rooms have personal desks and ample storage space.

LOS ANGELES—Mesa West Capital has originated $63.8 million in short-term first mortgage debt in two separate financings secured by commercial real estate assets in the California cities of Walnut Creek and San Diego. Mesa West provided a joint venture of Citivest Commercial and Tallen Capital Partners with a $35.75 million first mortgage loan to refinance and reposition the Rossmoor Shopping Center in Walnut Creek. The sponsor acquired the property in 2012 and is moving forward with an extensive City-approved redevelopment plan that will include upgrading the exterior façade, expanding the inline space and adding new retail pads.  The improvements will create an additional 27,000 square feet of net rentable area to the existing 108,000-square-foot grocery anchored retail center.  The sponsor plans to leverage the planned improvements to roll existing leases to market and build on current leasing momentum, which includes new leases for future pad space with CVS and Starbucks.

SAN DIEGO—Murphy Development Co. has purchased the 542,197-square-foot, two-building campus at the San Diego Business Park on Otay Mesa from Panasonic Corporation of North America for $28 million. MDC plans to invest an additional $15 million in upgrades. The buildings are strategically located contiguous to the SR 11 and within a few hundred feet of SR 905, providing excellent freeway identity and access.  Panasonic will lease approximately 70 percent of the 329,000-square-foot 2001 Sanyo Avenue building after MDC completes 42,000 square feet of new office improvements. The remaining 94,000 square feet of Class A industrial space in the 2001 Building and 209,700 square-feet in the 2055 Building will be marketed for lease. Additionally, the campus also includes a seven-acre fully entitled parcel of land, which MDC plans to develop into either a 150,000- square-foot freestanding building or to expand the 2055 Building into a 350,000-square-foot building. Brent Bohlken and Bryan Teel of Newmark Grubb Knight Frank represented the seller in the transaction and Murphy represented itself.

-Kelsi Maree Borland

Developers Are Connecting Over Smart Technology

GlobeSt.com

 

In the near future, all of our living spaces—home, work, hotel—will be able to communicate. Commercial real estate owners and developers are looking at ways to connect property types through smart technology. For now, this is still a concept, but the realization is not far away. Brookfield Residential is working on smart technology in its residential projects, while Hilton Hotels is looking at creating a more home-like environment in guestrooms.

“These are the kind of things that are going to extend the experience for those individuals and organizations that advance technology,” Adrian Foley, COO at Brookfield Residential, tells GlobeSt.com. “Wouldn’t it be great if you could bring the same technology into the hotel room, so that the room instantly recognized you and you had the same settings that you would have at home: your Pandora account, your Netflix account and all of your settings would be uploaded to the room. You could literally put your phone in a docking station, and it would feel like your own master bedroom.”

Brookfield has spent years researching this technology and looking for different applications for the home. The firm has also looked at how to connect smart car technology with the in-home technology to create a fluid transition between locations. “These are the sorts of things that we are aiming for. We spent some time with a car manufacturer a few years ago, and the whole point of that exchange was to facilitate the seamless transition from home to car and car to home,” he says. “We are going from the home to the car and the car to work. There are a lot of tools that we are using that are consistent between our home, our car and our office space. Having the ability to make that transition seamlessly is going to be incredibly convenient.”

While residential and hotel properties are working on the first stages of implementing this technology, offices aren’t far off either. Last year, the Souferian Group launched Be, a hotel-like in-office amenity package that creates a more comfortable in-office environment. The benefits of this are vast, ranging from sustainability to convenience. “I can already see its application beyond the entertainment aspect of technology,” says Foley. “There is a lot of depth to this technology, and we are going to see a lot of value and convenience in implementing this technology.”

-Kelsi Maree Borland

Office construction boom predicted for 2017

Curbed

 

It’s barely February, but analysts are already predicting a bumper crop of office construction in the U.S. this year. Researchers from Dodge Data & Analytics anticipate a 10 percent increase in office construction starts—and 10 million more square feet—over 2016. Meanwhile, the chief economist of ConstructConnect, Alex Carrick, pegs the increase at 11.3 percent. Whatever the number, experts agree that private office construction is poised for a boom compared to other types of commercial construction. But why?

The answer is twofold. For one, there’s a bump in the number of jobs—like accounting, architecture, and engineering—requiring office space for more workers. Secondly, companies are building additional urban offices near public transportation to attract millennials who’d rather live and work downtown. Pedestrian-friendly locations near nightlife and transit hubs are especially coveted.

At the same time, some suburban cores are also expecting an infusion of office construction as a segment of millennials seek out more affordable locales to start raising families. Suburban workplace construction could help stoke the densification of formerly sprawling towns.

New office design trends including sustainability, wellness, and playful interiors are also driving construction growth. Employers are looking to architecture to encourage collaboration and communication.

-Barbara Eldredge

Here's a glimpse at the renovations underway at the old L.A. Herald-Examiner building

Curbed LA

 

Curbed got a look at some of the work being done to renovate the long-empty Los Angeles Herald-Examiner building, designed by Hearst Castle architect Julia Morgan, in south Downtown Los Angeles.

Crews have already removed cement that blocked two of the building's original exterior arches and have installed new glass windows at the corner of 11th Street and Broadway, beneath the original "Herald-Examiner" sign.

We were able to look inside the first floor—which is slated for restaurants and retail—and saw that the interior has been gutted and is awaiting further renewal.

The exterior of the historic Mission Revival/Spanish Colonial-style building otherwise remains in poor shape: Paint is peeling, wrought iron appears weathered, and the beautiful tile and other details have seen better days.

 

Former Herald-Examiner publisher Hearst Corp. and its partner, Georgetown Co., own the building, which will be converted into creative office space and first-floor restaurants, with completion sometime this year, the Los Angeles Times reported. Architecture firm Gensler is overseeing the renovation.

-Patrick Lee Online

Latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson forecast commercial real estate survey results reveal positive outlook for California

Bisnow

 

There has been no significant shift in the economy related to the election results and the commercial real estate cycle has continued to run its regular course, according to the Winter/Spring 2017 Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast released today.“While the outlook for 2017 may look relatively good, the strong move towards online shopping, higher interest rates, a continued redefinition of the office environment and the dropping of fertility rates driving factors in commercial real estate,” UCLA Anderson School of Management adjunct professor of economics and senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg said.The survey asked respondents in San Francisco, Silicon Valley, East Bay, Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego about markets and building conditions three years out for multifamily, office, industrial and retail. The three-year outlook was intentional since entitlements, environmental reviews and sales/purchases typically take about three years, according to Allen Matkins partner John Tipton. An overview of the survey results are above (click url to view).

Each of these regions has unique natural features that will continue to play into market dynamics. San Francisco is land-constrained, while Orange County and San Diego have less density than the Bay Area, Tipton said. The East Bay also offers more room to grow and is less densely populated.

Desirability and job growth put constraints on natural barriers. While Los Angeles is expansive, places within downtown Los Angeles and Santa Monica are smaller defined areas that are highly desirable and often have higher rents, Tipton said.  Check out some additional findings below.

MultifamilyTipton said the most surprising aspect of the survey was from the multifamily sector. For the first time, San Francisco and Silicon Valley respondents were strongly negative about the future of multifamily, with moderate negativity cropping up in East Bay and San Diego. Los Angeles and Orange County remained positive, but less so than in previous years.

Developers moved in and built higher-end multifamily in recent years, and are approaching saturation, Tipton said.

He said San Francisco and Silicon Valley panelists aren’t saying the market is crashing, but demand for higher-end multifamily has caught up with supply. Rents will need to adjust for inflation and recent reports suggest rents are already starting to fall in the Bay Area.

Developers turned to luxury multifamily in recent years because job growth in tech created high-income earners and these developments penciled out better given the high cost of land and construction, according to the survey.

Tipton said there is still plenty of demand for lower-end multifamily, where margins are not as high. Even so, about 53% of Bay Area panelists and 54% of Southern California panelists said they would not begin a project in 2017 compared to 39% and 26%, respectively, a year ago.

OfficeThe office market also appears to be topping out throughout the Bay Area, while Southern California respondents still have some optimism about office growth over the next three years. Above is an exclusive first look at the office video accompanying the report.

“San Francisco was the first to lead out , and it has been an incredible market ever since,” Tipton said.

For the past two years, those in the Bay Area have held pessimistic views about the future of office while Southern California respondents remain positive, albeit less so than previous years.

About 70% of Bay Area panelists said they are sitting on the sidelines for new office projects this year while about 60% of Southern California panelists have no plans for new projects this year. “The general thinking is that the markets are fairly fully priced,” Tipton said.

IndustrialWhile multifamily and office segments appear to be topping out, industrial is just getting started. Tipton said e-commerce is helping the industrial segment and demand for warehouses.

“The amount of warehouse space is not enough. Supply can’t keep up with demand at this point,” Tipton said.

Industrial in the outer areas of California, like the Inland Empire, is easily getting built, he said. But more centrally located industrial supply is hard-pressed to meet demand needs, which impacts pricing.

Each panel expressed optimism for industrial through 2019. Additional forces affecting a positive industrial market are manufacturing, export of goods to Asia and Mexico, and imports from Asia coming through California ports.

RetailThe survey revealed general optimism for retail in the Bay Area, with San Francisco panelists reporting the highest optimism. Los Angeles and Orange County respondents expressed pessimism about the future of retail. In light of that outlook, it is surprising that 14% of Bay Area respondents said they were planning new retail while two-thirds of Southern California panelists were planning new projects.

The report suggests the upscale shopping in the Bay Area may make developers optimistic, but not enough to create a new project, while Southern California developers may be jumping into refurbishments of old malls. More homebuilding in the Inland Empire and North County San Diego could also be sparking demand for additional retail space.

While retail is a relatively new data point for the survey and harder to track long-term trends, Tipton said it is clear retail is marked by the shift to e-commerce.

“You see a lot of traditional malls struggling a little bit,” Tipton said. “What you see is a growth area of people wanting the lifestyle retail experience.

He said at places like The Grove in Los Angeles, people don’t come just to shop, but there are other entertainment aspects people find enjoyable.

-Julie Littman


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